Why Saudi Arabia Is Considering Buying Turkey’s Upcoming Stealth Jet

Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in buying 100 Turkish next-generation TF Kaan stealth fighter jets currently under development. There are political and technical reasons why Riyadh may choose this particular aircraft. For one, it may want to signal to the United States that it has alternatives to the fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II. It may also have concluded that the TF Kaan could become a suitable stopgap solution for its air force until it acquires a sixth-generation fighter sometime in the 2040s or beyond.

After three days of discussions hosted by Turkey on bilateral defense collaboration, Turkish media reported that Saudi Arabia plans to purchase 100 TF Kaan jets as part of its military’s strategic plans for the 2030s.

The Saudi kingdom is already engaging in extensive defense cooperation with the Turkish republic. A 2023 Saudi order of Turkish Bayraktar Akinci drones was described as “the biggest defense and aviation export contract in the history of the Republic of Turkey.”

A deal for 100 TF Kaans would similarly come without precedent and could give Turkey some much-needed investment in the ambitious aircraft project. Additionally, such a large Saudi order could help bring down the price per aircraft, which could, in turn, help Turkey win some additional foreign customers who would otherwise hesitate over the price tag.

The Kaan completed its first flight in February 2024. “With Kaan, our country will not only have a fifth-generation fighter jet, but also technologies that few countries in the world have,” said Haluk Gorgun, head of Turkey’s Defense Industries Directorate, on that occasion.

The initial engines on the twin-engine stealth jet are American-made General Electric F-110s, which power F-16s and other fourth-generation fighters. Turkey plans to replace these with indigenous engines. Without fifth-generation engines, the TF Kaan, undoubtedly featuring fifth-generation capabilities, will not become a full-fledged fifth-generation stealth fighter.

Consequently, the aircraft may, like the upcoming South Korea’s KF-21 Boramae, have the unofficial designation of a “4.75-generation” fighter. In other words, it’s a notch above the Dassault Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon but below truly fifth-generation stealth aircraft like the F-35 and F-22 Raptor.

Saudi Arabia may be satisfied with that, especially if it secures technology transfers and joint production opportunities, which would help it further develop its domestic arms industry.

In addition to modern F-15SA fighters, Riyadh wants additional Eurofighters and has shown interest in ordering 54 Rafales from France. These are among the most capable and sophisticated 4.5-generation fighters available on the market.

That doesn’t mean Saudi Arabia isn’t interested in acquiring fifth-generation fighters. On the contrary, the kingdom has long sought F-35s but never received authorization. The outgoing Biden administration has discussed a potential Saudi F-35 sale as part of the proposed bilateral defense treaty and the kingdom establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. The incoming Trump administration might want to sell F-35s to the kingdom as part of a broader deal.

Again, by expressing interest in the TF Kaan, Riyadh could attempt to show Washington that it has alternatives to the F-35. The neighboring United Arab Emirates reportedly showed interest in joining the KF-21 project after suspending its F-35 negotiations.

Taking the long view, Saudi Arabia may have concluded that acquiring the F-35 or any other genuinely fifth-generation aircraft is unlikely. By setting its sights on fielding a “4.75-gen” fighter in the 2030s, it may aim to have a sixth-generation fighter sometime in the 2040s.

And there are already signs Riyadh wants such a fighter. In return for “a potentially significant financial contribution,” it wants to become the fourth partner in the UK-Japan-Italy Global Combat Air Program, GCAP, developing the Tempest stealth fighter. While the tremendously expensive project would undoubtedly benefit from an infusion of Saudi cash, Japan is reportedly hesitant to grant the kingdom’s admission. Tokyo fears that disagreements with a fourth member could lead to delays and missing the consortium’s 2035 deadline to roll out the aircraft.

Time will tell if Saudi Arabia ultimately wins admission into the GCAP and, with it, access to advanced technologies and the prospect of jointly producing one of the most cutting-edge combat aircraft worldwide.

For now, Riyadh seems content with expanding an already extensive defense partnership with Turkey by acquiring the TF Kaan and patiently waiting.