The downfall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria signals a considerable shift in the Middle East. Türkiye, being a significant regional actor, has a unique position to influence the future of post-Assad Syria.
Touched directly by the former civil war in Syria, which shares an 822-kilometer (510-mile) border with Türkiye, nowhere else will the repercussions of this civil war be so severely felt as in Türkiye. The country has hosted nearly 4 million Syrian refugees, has been affected by the threat of cross-border terrorism using the power vacuum in Syria, and faced a variety of economic impacts. Such factors may, according to Ankara’s interests, confirm the strategic importance of securing a stable, democratic and united Syria as a geographical counterpart and brother.
As widely acknowledged, the fall of Assad has made Türkiye a critical actor in the country. Both with its support for the Syrian people displaced by the brutal regime and through its diplomatic and tactical relations with the opposition to the former Baath regime, Türkiye’s influence has grown significantly. However, Türkiye’s position in the post-Assad scenario faces a couple of challenges ahead.
Priorities of Türkiye
One of them is preventing terrorism. Ankara’s goal is to obstruct the de facto gains of terrorist groups, supported by the Western governments, that have become more powerful in northeastern Syria due to the power vacuum created by the civil war. Türkiye should focus on preventing these groups from disturbing the balance and security that has emerged after the fall of the old regime.
Another priority of Türkiye is prioritizing border stability. A secure border would minimize security threats and allow people to return to their country freely and safely. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has emphasized that Türkiye does not intend to send Syrians away by force, as it has not done so over the last 14 years. Instead, a strategy is being drawn up to support the planned return of Syrian refugees alongside the establishment of the necessary infrastructure and democratic system.
A path toward inclusive governance should be paved. A democratic, participatory and representative system in Syria serves Türkiye’s long-term interests in peace and stability in the region and enhances its position as a role model. Ensuring the protection of freedom of thought and freedom of organization in Syria and involving all social groups in establishing the new regime’s mechanisms will be critical in rebuilding and healing this ancient Arab nation.
Contribution to democracy
The establishment of democratic development and the healing of the economic and social wounds caused by the brutal Assad regime are among the main challenges facing the new Syria. The success of the Syrian people offers unique opportunities but also considerable challenges. In this regard, Türkiye has several channels through which it can contribute to the democratic renovation of Syria.
Türkiye has played a major role in supporting the legitimate opposition groups and participating in the Syrian peace talks, including the Astana Process with Russia and Iran. After the fall of Assad’s government, Türkiye aims to shift its diplomatic activism toward supporting international bodies involved in constitution drafting and political transition. Its influence over opposition groups provides Türkiye with a unique position to mediate between different factions and support peacebuilding. As President-elect Donald Trump has highlighted, Türkiye is in a position to hold the keys to the new Syria.
Another significant role for Türkiye would be in Syria’s economic rehabilitation. With nearly half of its population displaced, about 20% of its housing stock damaged and its currency seriously devalued, Syria requires a comprehensive rebuilding strategy. Some analysts estimate that rehabilitation could cost up to $400 billion. Türkiye’s historical and strategic relations with the new regime, as well as its practical experience in managing one of the largest populations of refugees in the world, will provide valuable knowledge for facilitating the safe and voluntary return of Syrian refugees. Turkish companies and financial institutions could help rebuild infrastructure, including transportation networks and energy lines, as Syria’s economy recovers to pre-conflict levels of stability.
The new Syrian leadership is not entirely inexperienced. In Idlib and Afrin provinces, the opposition has managed to govern a population of 5 to 8 million and establish a relatively stable social ground for people. However, they need expensive support in capacity building and technical assistance to manage a country as vast as Syria. Türkiye can share its experience in democratic institutions, governance frameworks and political pluralism with Syria in transition. Capacity-building programs for civil servants, legal experts and local governance actors would contribute significantly to establishing functional and accountable institutions. Removing the cultural residue of the Assad regime from institutions, bureaucrats and political actors will be critical in this regard.
It is clear that a prosperous new Syria would benefit the entire region. Türkiye could provide Syria with access to regional and global markets for trade, investment and economic partnerships. Additionally, Türkiye’s financial institutions are crucial in terms of providing development grants and credit for the new Syria. Emphasizing cross-border trade zones and joint ventures could rapidly accelerate Syria’s economic recovery. Nationalizing the Raqqa-based petroleum production, which was exploited by terrorist organizations during the civil war, is also critical.
Problems, constraints
On the other hand, while the recent process has increased Türkiye’s power in the region and created important opportunities for Syria, it also presents certain challenges. Türkiye faces several impediments in contributing to the post-Assad transition of Syria, including the following:
Potential tensions, especially with the claims of the PKK/YPG terrorist organization for autonomy, could strain Türkiye’s efforts. It is crucial to resolve these tensions while maintaining a single, united Syrian state. Securing the Kurdish citizens of Syria from the terrorist organization, which has established an oppressive regime in northeastern Syria, is the key. While adding Kurdish citizens to the Syrian political process is important, excluding the territorial claims of terror leaders from the new Syria is essential.
The differing agendas of Israel, Russia, Iran and Western powers in Syria may hinder the establishment of a new Syrian state. The newly established government must navigate this complex landscape, requiring Türkiye to establish a finely tuned diplomatic process to protect its regional gains.
Türkiye’s internal political opposition to its Syria policy limits engagement in the region. To build a broader consensus, the government must enhance communication with the opposition and encourage all political actors to take positions in Türkiye’s national interest.
Strategic recommendations
Türkiye must adopt an inclusive and pluralistic approach to maximize its support for Syria’s democratization efforts. In this regard, strengthening multilateral engagement is crucial. Partnering with international actors, particularly the United Nations, the European Union and the Arab League, will enhance Türkiye’s efforts in supporting Syria’s rehabilitation and political transition.
Building partnerships with local stakeholders is another critical area. Fostering collaboration with civil society organizations, rebuilding democratic nongovental organizations (NGOs) that were wiped out by the Assad regime and forging strategic relationships with grassroots organizations, including key tribes, will strengthen local governance.
It is important to emphasize that stability in the region is essential for Türkiye’s interests. A stable Syria, strongly supported by Türkiye, could open diplomatic and strategic alliances for the country across the Middle East, North Africa and Asia. Establishing a collaborative regional framework to address common security concerns would also limit the warmongering of Israel in the region.
Due to its geographic proximity, historical ties, internal resources and diplomatic influence, Türkiye is a vital player in shaping Syria’s future. Without question, Türkiye, alongside Qatar emerged as a winner with the end of the civil war, favoring the democratic opposition forces. Despite many challenges ahead, Türkiye’s active and balanced foreign policy has the potential to significantly contribute to the creation of a stable, economically sound neighbor, thereby improving the broader region. The success of these efforts depends on how well Türkiye can navigate specific dynamics, balance competing interests and ultimately uphold democratic principles in the region.
