In a significant shift in the energy landscape, Türkiye’s state gas importer BOTAS has signed three long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) agreements in the past five months, undermining Turkmenistan’s ambitions to supply gas to Türkiye and potentially Europe.
As the Turkish government diversifies its gas sources, Turkmenistan’s hopes of establishing a gas swap deal have become increasingly uncertain.
Why it matters
Türkiye’s new LNG agreements could sideline Turkmenistan’s hopes of supplying gas to Türkiye and possibly Europe through a swap deal.
What’s happening?
- On September 18, BOTAS signed an agreement with France’s TotalEnergies to import 1.6 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG annually from the U.S., starting in 2027.
- This follows a similar agreement with Shell for 4 bcm per year and another deal with ExxonMobil in May, further securing Türkiye’s gas needs through LNG.
Big picture
- With these new LNG contracts, Türkiye’s demand for Turkmen gas is decreasing, although there could still be opportunities if a European export deal is reached.
- In March, Türkiye and Turkmenistan signed a preliminary swap agreement, but negotiations have since stalled, reportedly due to pricing disagreements.
Looking ahead
- Azerbaijan could benefit from these developments, as its growing gas production could meet Türkiye’s needs, freeing up more gas for Europe. Türkiye imported 10.3 bcm of gas from Azerbaijan last year, up from 8.7 bcm in 2022.
