Türkiye has significantly reduced its imports of Russian oil, halving the figure to 200,000 barrels per day in August, due to ongoing repairs at the STAR refinery near Izmir, Azerbaijani publication News.Az reported.
The decline from the previous 400,000–450,000 barrels per day earlier in the summer was reported by Kpler – a market analytics firm.
STAR refinery repairs trigger decline in oil imports
The STAR refinery, operated by Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR, is responsible for processing about 45% of all Russian oil supplied to Türkiye. Repairs at the facility began on Sept. 5 and are expected to last for two months.
The refinery’s annual capacity stands at approximately 200,000 barrels per day, or 12 million tons of oil per year, meeting 20% of Türkiye’s demand for petroleum products.
The decision to cut back on Russian oil imports was made in anticipation of the plant’s temporary shutdown.
“Purchases began to decline ahead of the planned production halt,” explained Viktor Katona, head of oil market analysis at Kpler.
Türkiye’s oil supply shift, market impact
According to Kpler data, Russian oil supplies to the Turkish port of Aliaga, where STAR is located, fell to 100,000 barrels per day in August from 300,000 barrels per day in June.
This reduction has led to speculation that Chinese buyers could soon be offered more Urals oil, as Russian exports to China had weakened during the summer months. Katona noted, “Urals exports to China, which were frankly weak during the summer months, will likely recover.”
While the situation poses some challenges for Russian suppliers, it is not seen as critical. “Russia’s dependence on the Asian market is at an all-time high, with virtually no buyers left in Europe except for Türkiye’s TUPRAS,” Katona added.
This shift has also slightly affected the price of Urals oil, with the discount in India rising to $4 per barrel against Brent, compared to $3 previously.
Future outlook for Russian exports
Experts agree that the impact of the STAR refinery shutdown on Russian oil exports in September and October will be limited.
Mikhail Zhuravlev, a senior expert at the Institute of Energy and Finance Foundation (FIEF), noted that rerouting 200,000–250,000 barrels per day would not pose a significant challenge for Russian exporters.
“The lost volumes will likely be redirected to the Indian market,” Zhuravlev said, adding that LUKOIL’s deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline are expected to resume in October.
Additionally, ongoing geopolitical developments, such as military actions in Lebanon and delays in OPEC+ production recovery until December, could boost demand for Urals oil.
