Turkish authorities are hopeful of achieving the export target of $264 billion for this year, set within the scope of the medium-term program, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said on Thursday, pointing to the prospect of lower tariffs for some goods under the new U.S. administration.
Pointing to the positive momentum in trade, Bolat recalled monthly export volumes, noting that just recently, they announced a new record volume of shipments achieved in October, which stood at $23.6 billion.
“We have announced export records in 10 of the last 15 months. Last May, we achieved the highest export rate in the history of the republic with $24.1 billion,” Bolat told the Türkiye Export Mobilization summit in Istanbul.
The event was organized by Türkiye’s leading media group and Daily Sabah’s parent company, Turkuvaz Media.
Evaluating the export targets and economic strategies and narrowing the current account deficit, Bolat also dismissed claims over trade with Israel, recalling the decision on the suspension, which was taken on May 2 this year.
Bolat expressed optimism over export figures despite ongoing global difficulties and issues such as rising protectionism, underscoring efforts of both the Trade Ministry and the exporters on the field.
He further noted they aimed to see positive results regarding November and December figures, adding: “We are going well at the moment.”
He also said the services exports have seen an upward momentum, pointing to around 7% increase in the first eight months of the year.
Answering the question on the trade prospects for the upcoming year, the minister recalled the disruption caused by the pandemic and relatively slower global growth of around 3.2% last year and this, and noted that the projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicate a similar picture for 2025.
Bolat noted the demand was led by markets like India and China and said that when looking at this year, the imports by the European Union slowed down by around 10%, where the growth is also weaker, however, pointing that Turkish exports with its main partner rose in this period.
“Out exports with Balkan countries are (also) increasing,” he said, adding that momentum persists in trade with the nations there, such as Romania, Bulgaria, Albania and others.
Narrowing gap, export support
Furthermore, Bolat noted that Türkiye’s foreign trade deficit decreased by 30.4% to $65.6 billion in the first 10 months of the year, adding that this showed that the Turkish economy had taken important steps toward balanced growth and macroeconomic stability.
He also pointed out the support provided to the exporters and companies in easing access to fairs and support directed toward green transformation and grants in line with international standards while reporting preparations for new financing programs to increase the country’s exports through high-tech and value-added production.
Referring to speculations on social media and claims on trade with Israel, Bolat recalled Türkiye’s stance, noting that Ankara brought out war in Gaza on all international platforms, reiterating that the trade was halted since May.
Trade with the U.S., tariffs
Answering the question on expectations of relations with the U.S. in a new period, after former president Donald Trump secured a return to the White House, Bolat noted they expected to reach $35 billion in trade volume this year.
He pointed to the more balanced trade, expectations related to defense cooperation, and strong tourism interest in the U.S.
Bolat said Türkiye expects Trump’s White House to lower tariffs on its steel and textile exports and that relations would “evolve for the better,” underscoring that this would be clearer in the next few months.
“What kind of policy will it implement in international trade? Will it evolve into an extraordinary precautionary policy against the entire world, China, and us in customs duties? We will all see the developments in these areas together,” he noted.
“With every new beginning, could there be a better process in bilateral relations? We expect this: an improvement in relations without embargoes regarding some of our needs in the defense industry,” he added.
He also said he expected fallout on banks and companies to ease or remove from Washington’s current Russia-related embargoes over Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
“We expect that … customs duties will be reduced in our foreign trade, especially in steel and textile products,” Bolat said.
Trump’s sweeping U.S. presidential victory on Wednesday helped spark a rally of as much as 0.4% in Turkis lira to 34.2 to the dollar, its strongest level since mid-October, making it one of the top performers among emerging markets (EMs).
Istanbul’s benchmark stock index jumped nearly 3%, marking its best day since May on Wednesday.
Investors and bankers said any renewed U.S. push for peace could underpin Ankara’s 18-month-old economic turnaround program, led by Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, which relies partly on foreign inflows and lowering inflation.
“The Türkiye trade is a relative outperformer within global EMs with the Trump victory,” said Blaise Antin, head of EM sovereign research at asset manager TCW in Los Angeles.
Türkiye’s cycle of lifting interest rate hikes to 50% has begun to cool annual inflation to below 48.6% last month from above 75% in May.
The policy turnaround in mid-2023 has helped lift net international reserves to $60 billion from -$5.7 billion, boosted partly by a return of foreign investors.
