The Turkish market eagerly anticipates the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s (CBRT) interest rate decision, with forecasts expecting rates to remain unchanged for the eighth consecutive month.
The Turkish central bank will announce the policy interest rate decision on Nov. 21 (today) at 2:00 p.m. following the Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
Finance sector aligns with interest rate expectations
According to the November 2024 Survey of Market Participants, released by the central bank, the survey was conducted among 68 respondents, including 51 from the financial sector—28 banks—and 17 from the real sector.
Participants anticipated that the one-week CBRT repo auction interest rate, also known as the policy rate, would remain at its current position of 50%.
Further predictions aggregated a gradual rate cut cycle, as follows:
- Three-month-ahead rate: 45.38%
- Twelve-month-ahead rate: 30.84%
- Twenty-four-month-ahead rate: 21.07%
Another survey, conducted by Anadolu Agency, included responses from 10 anonymous economists who shared similar insights with the central bank’s research.
Among the economists, six predicted the policy rate would remain at 50% by the end of the year, one forecasted 48.5%, and three projected 47.5%.
Interest cut cycle to usher in next 2 months
A Bloomberg HT survey of 25 respondent companies similarly revealed expectations that the central bank would keep rates unchanged in November.
Twenty-four companies predict the policy rate will decline to 30% by the end of 2025, with the highest forecast standing at 35% while the lowest is at 25%. Nine of the 25 companies pointed to December as the likely month for the first rate cut, while 12 anticipated January 2025.
