German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stands on the day that Jorg Kukies, interim German finance minister, is sworn in, at the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, in Berlin, on November 7, 2024. [Annegret Hilse/Reuters]
Three elections will have a decisive influence on the future and legacy of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as they offer him the opportunity to extend his control over Turkey for several more years, without the (admittedly diminishing) constraints that he faces.
The US elections brought back Donald Trump, with whom the Turkish president believes that he can do business without any annoying bureaucracies, without sensitivities regarding the rule of law and human rights.
The snap elections in Germany in a couple of months are expected to bring to power Friedrich Merz and his conservative CDU, which will most likely pursue economic and defense deals with Turkey, without the reservations and “silent” arms embargo which the outgoing government of Olaf Scholz applied. Finally, Erdogan wants to contest the 2028 presidential elections. Changing the constitution to accommodate this will need 360 votes in a Parliament of 600, votes which the president’s AKP party and its nationalist partner do not have. The gains from all these elections may be great but nothing guarantees that things will go as Erdogan desires.
The Turkish president may be pleased by Trump’s elections, but no one forgets how unpredictable the latter is. It was during his first term that he very publicly warned Erdogan not to “be a fool” and threatened to trash the Turkish economy. It was a Trump administration that imposed sanctions on Turkey after it bought the S-400 missile system from Russia. Also, Trump’s unconditional support of Benjamin Netanyahu will be difficult for Erdogan to deal with, seeing how strongly he condemns Israel and supports the Palestinians.
The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran will exclude the possibility of the United States withdrawing its forces from Syria, to the chagrin of both Turkey and Russia
If the Turkish leader is forced to change stance, he will lose more votes to small Islamic parties which are already strengthening at his expense. The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran will exclude the possibility of the United States withdrawing its forces from Syria, to the chagrin of both Turkey and Russia. Relations between Erdogan and Trump, in other words, will be complicated and unpredictable.
In Germany, a CDU victory without a governing majority may lead to a “grand coalition” with the Social Democrats, who lead the outgoing government.
In that case, the latter will get the Foreign Ministry, where they will be able to keep pressing Ankara on human rights. This, however, may just be another incentive for the current “opening” towards the Kurds, with which Erdogan aims to gain enough votes to amend the constitution.
The alignment of these three elections hold much promise but also many risks for Erdogan.
