When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appointed Cevdet Yılmaz as vice-president in 2023, the former bureaucrat’s eastern hometown of Bingöl burst into celebration: revellers set off fireworks, pounded on drums and waved flags showing the ruling party’s lightbulb-shaped logo.
The fanfare marked a rare flourish in a long career during which Yılmaz, a soft-spoken veteran of Erdoğan’s Justice and Development party (AKP), has quietly established himself as one of the strongman’s most trusted lieutenants and a linchpin in Turkey’s sweeping economic overhaul.
Much global attention has focused on Mehmet Şimşek, the finance minister and former Merrill Lynch banker who has been received like a rock star on the international financial circuit as he tries to persuade investors Erdoğan has truly abandoned the policies that ignited a prolonged inflation crisis.
But Yılmaz, who has held key government posts throughout the president’s more than two decades in power, has quietly played a central role in keeping the pivot on track at home, according to current and former officials, business executives and analysts.
“Cevdet has been communicating with the president, businesspeople, the public, telling them we have a programme running and things are under control,” said a former top policymaker. “The president needs to hear from people that he trusts about the programme.”
“In the palace, Yılmaz is essentially keeping the Şimşek programme on track,” said Emre Peker, Europe director at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. He added that “Yılmaz is a very experienced hand” and that “he is trusted by Erdoğan because he has been in the AKP from the start”.
Yılmaz, who was born in 1967 in the hilly Bingöl province, served in Erdoğan’s first government 21 years ago as general director of EU relations. Local media said at the time of his appointment as minister of state in 2009 that he was the first person from Bingöl to serve in such a senior government position.
Yılmaz, who holds a masters degree from Denver university and a doctorate from Ankara’s Bilkent University, was also an AKP MP and chaired the influential Planning and Budget Commission. He became vice-president following the May 2023 general election, which Erdoğan won despite the most vigorous attempt by Turkey’s opposition to unseat him in years.
Şimşek is widely considered to be the leading architect of Turkey’s economic overhaul, which began shortly after the 2023 election as concerns grew over the trajectory of the $1tn economy. But a senior Turkish official said Yılmaz had been instrumental in convincing Erdoğan of economic policy points about which the president was undecided.
He said Yılmaz acted as a sounding board for domestic businesses, hearing out complaints about the new economic policy. Erdoğan’s business allies, such as construction magnates, were among the biggest beneficiaries of the president’s previous approach of pumping up economic growth with ultra-low borrowing costs, and some are growing impatient with the new programme.
“Şimşek knows the real economy well, but when it comes to speaking with captains of industry, he isn’t as good as Cevdet Yılmaz,” said Atilla Yesilada, an Istanbul-based analyst at the consultancy GlobalSource Partners.
Yılmaz is viewed as a level-headed bureaucrat who adheres to conventional economic theories. He backed the central bank’s huge rises in borrowing costs, which has brought interest rates from 8.5 per cent in June 2023 to as high as 50 per cent, while also cautioning that the government does not want to slow growth too aggressively.
“We want to see more price stability and financial stability, but we do also want to continue with a reasonable rate of growth and employment because we are a developing country,” Yılmaz told the Financial Times in 2023. He declined to be interviewed for this article.
He has repeatedly pledged his full backing to Şimşek’s programme even as public discontent over the state of the economy has grown.
“While combating inflation, you may face some temporary challenges,” Yılmaz said in a recent speech to Turkish industrialists. “However, let us not forget that without reducing inflation, you cannot achieve predictability, reduce uncertainties, or fully prevent those who exploit the foggy environment created by inflation to act opportunistically.”
Erdoğan, who has previously called high rates the “mother and father of all evil”, has supported the tighter monetary policy stance. But investors caution that the president has abruptly changed course in the past, sacking previous central bank chiefs for increasing borrowing costs.
Şimşek had quit as deputy prime minister in 2018 when Erdoğan anointed his son-in-law as finance minister, an abrupt shake-up that deeply unnerved foreign investors and sent the lira tumbling.
Yılmaz’s presence on Turkey’s economic team has been an important bulwark at a time when AKP members who espouse unorthodox policies are still circling Erdoğan, analysts said. The senior Turkish official noted that Yılmaz’s long-standing ties to the AKP also made it easy for him to co-ordinate policies between government departments.
“Yılmaz’s co-ordination and sincere ownership of the economy programme is very important,” the chief executive of a Turkish lender said.
Yılmaz’s interventions come as many Turks are growing weary of the years-long economic crisis. The government had previously sought to dull pain through huge stimulus packages, particularly ahead of the 2023 election, helping Erdoğan win but also inflaming inflation.
The government’s policies to cool demand, which have included rises in VAT and petrol taxes, and a decision to raise the minimum wage by only 30 per cent for 2025, have won plaudits from Wall Street banks, rating agencies and international institutions such as the EU and IMF.
But they have also heaped pressure on households. Fewer than one in five Turkish residents polled by Ankara-based Metropoll this summer said they approved of Şimşek. “Nobody trusts him,” one Ankara-based taxi driver told the FT.
This is where Yılmaz, one of the very few people who has survived so long working with the mercurial president, could play a crucial role. Yet, as economic pain for Turkish voters lingers, analysts warn that Erdoğan’s patience for the reforms will not be endless. “If you look at those who have followed Erdoğan’s long march from exile to leadership, very few are left,” Yesilada said.
