Turkey has started the process of joining BRICS, an international bloc that includes countries such as Russia, China, and Iran. Turkey would be the first NATO member to join this group, but analysts say that this step does not mean that the North Atlantic alliance would lose an ally.
The process for Turkey’s accession to the BRICS group is underway, a spokesperson for Turkey’s ruling party, AKP, stated at the beginning of September. „Our president has stated on several occasions that we want to be members (of BRICS)…. Our request regarding this issue is clear. This process is ongoing within this framework, but there is no concrete development in this regard,” said Omer Celik, quoted by Reuters.
The BRICS group, a name created from the initials in English of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, aims to counterbalance the political and economic power of developed Western states.
Since its first informal meetings in 2006 when it was known as the shorter BRIC, the bloc has expanded, now including countries like Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia has also been invited, but an official from the country stated in January that this process is ongoing, as reported by Business Insider.
Erdogan seeks a difficult balance
If Turkey joins this bloc, it will be the first NATO member and EU candidate in this position. However, it would be a move that complicates Ankara’s ties with the West and raises questions about Turkey’s commitment to the military alliance.
Turkey’s relationship with NATO is already strained due to the close ties Ankara maintains with Russia, amid the war in Ukraine, although Turkish President Recep Erdogan has taken on a mediation role between Kiev and Moscow. His efforts to improve relations with China have also displeased the West.
These diplomatic options of Turkey seem to reflect Erdogan’s desire to shape Turkey’s independence on the international stage through a change in foreign policy. The Turkish president now seems interested in maintaining a balance between relations with the West, Russia, and China, experts say.
“Turkey is seeking alternatives. It does not want to leave NATO. It does not want to give up its European aspirations. But it wants to diversify its set of alliances, to cover its bets, so to speak. It no longer sees NATO membership as the sole identity, its sole foreign policy orientation,” said Asli Aydintașbaș, an associate member of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution, to France 24.
Erdogan believes that playing both sides is a good strategy, adding that he wants to make the West oppose Russia and China. “I think he has become skillful at playing this geopolitical game,” said Aydintaşbaş, but she added that Erdogan sometimes pushes the “geopolitical balance” too far.
A clear example is Turkey’s decision in 2019 to purchase the Russian S-400 air defense system instead of equivalent systems produced by NATO. In 2020, the United States clearly conveyed to Turkey that the acquisition of the S-400 system jeopardizes the security of American military technology and personnel, while also providing substantial funds to Moscow’s defense sector and giving Russia access to Turkey’s military and defense industry.
Ankara’s decision to proceed with that agreement ultimately led to Turkey’s exclusion from the American F-35 aircraft program, as well as a series of sanctions imposed by the United States.
What NATO and the EU stand to gain from Erdogan’s game
However, Bulent Aliriza, a senior associate member of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told Business Insider that he does not believe BRICS will compete with NATO and Turkey’s other Western relations. “But it is a statement of dissatisfaction, I would say, with some aspects of its relationship with the West,” he explained.
“Even if Turkey joins BRICS, I do not think that will lead to a fundamental redefinition of Turkey’s relationship with the West,” Aliriza added.
Yusuf Can, the coordinator of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, also said that “Turkey’s strategic diversification should not alarm NATO allies.” On the contrary, they could benefit from a partner in such circles to which they do not have direct access.
“Understanding and collaborating with Turkey’s perspective could improve U.S. and NATO relations with Turkey, regardless of potential administrative changes in Ankara,” Can wrote in an article for the Wilson Center.
An improved U.S.-Turkey partnership could also help secure crucial strategic regions, such as the Black Sea, which was at the center of the Russia-Ukraine war, the expert appreciates.
“Economically, strengthened U.S.-Turkey relations can benefit the EU by stimulating investments in new trade routes,” Can added.
Aliriza also believes that the West could find a way to benefit from this situation. “It does not necessarily have to become a problem for the West, but it can actually benefit if Turkey and its Western partners can have an open and honest dialogue about how to proceed,” he believes.
“Turkey remains a member of the Council of Europe. Most of its trade is still with the West. And regarding investments, although there has been much speculation about Chinese investments in Turkey, most of the foreign investment in Turkey (…) seeking profit from high-interest rates, has come from the West,” Aliriza emphasizes.
The United States has remained silent after Turkey announced its intention to turn to BRICS. “Washington is silent. It does not want a public, high-profile discussion with Turkey and knows that President Erdogan is unpredictable,” he told France 24.
For now, what is certain is that the BRICS group will hold a summit in Kazan, Russia, from October 22 to 24.
T.D.
