The final parts of the second battery of Russian S-400 missile defense system arrive at Murted … [+]
Turkey reportedly has a new proposal regarding its Russian S-400 Triumf air defense missile systems that it hopes will convince the United States to lift its F-35 ban.
“We will put them in boxes, you inspect,” Ankara is reportedly suggesting to Washington, according to a report in Turkey’s daily Cumhuriyet on Tuesday.
The U.S. suspended Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program and blocked it from buying any of the fifth-generation stealth fighters in 2019 after Ankara took delivery of the Russian missile system. Washington repeatedly told Ankara that the S-400 and F-35 were incompatible, warning that having the Russian system in Turkey could enable Moscow to acquire sensitive information about the American fighters’ stealth capabilities and identify potential weaknesses for exploitation.
Turkey tested S-400 radars in late 2019 and fired a test missile the following year. Aside from that, it never integrated it into its broader air defenses nor put it into operation as a standalone system. Former Defense Minister Hulusi Akar insisted in 2022 that the missiles were ready for operation whenever needed.
Earlier this month, a former Turkish minister suggested Turkey could sell its S-400s to India or Pakistan, reasoning that selling to either of those countries would not antagonize Russia. Turkish officials have rejected previous proposals to export the systems to any third country. If the Cumhuriyet article is accurate, this stance remains unchanged.
However, suggesting that the systems remain in storage as a solution isn’t completely new and may not convince Washington to reverse its decision on Turkish F-35s.
That doesn’t mean the United States isn’t open to a possible solution. Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said in January that Washington “would be delighted to welcome Turkey back into the F-35 family” if Ankara can satisfactorily resolve the S-400 issue. Other U.S. officials have since confirmed this stance remains unchanged.
The alleged Turkish offer to keep S-400s in storage with an inspection arrangement suggests Ankara wants to meet Washington halfway. However, the United States probably will not settle for anything less than Turkey entirely removing the S-400s from the country.
Furthermore, this alleged solution isn’t the first time Turkey has proposed something along these lines. For example, former Defense Minister Akar suggested in 2021 that Washington and Ankara could replicate “the model used for the S-300 in Crete.”
Greece possesses S-300PMU-1 missile systems which are based on its Mediterranean island. Initially ordered from Russia by the Republic of Cyprus, the missiles were ultimately diverted to and stored on the Greek island to defuse a crisis in the late 1990s, when Turkey threatened to preemptively destroy them once they arrived on Cyprus. Athens kept its inherited S-300s in storage on Crete for over a decade before test-firing them in 2013. Turkish officials often compare Ankara’s S-400 acquisition with Greece’s S-300 possession, dubiously implying an unfair double standard at Turkey’s expense.
In adopting the Crete model, Akar had suggested Turkey could use its S-400s “according to the state of threats,” correctly noting Greece’s S-300s are “not always operational.” Allowing the U.S. to monitor S-400s in storage, likely in areas far from any airbases hosting F-35s, and, presumably, notifying Washington when, if ever, they would be deployed or relocated in advance is likely what Ankara presently has in mind.
Analysts previously expressed skepticism that Turkish F-35s and S-400s would ever have been “co-located” if Turkey received both. Either way, having Turkey’s S-400s inactive and in storage under U.S. supervision would undoubtedly further reduce any risk of Russia gleaning any intelligence on the F-35 or anything else.
The United States established a program with Pakistan permitting U.S. personnel to monitor the end-use of Pakistani F-16s Washington sold Islamabad after 2001.
“A similar program could serve as a model to keep tabs on any future Turkish use of the F-35 and ensure a highly circumscribed S-400 deployment,” noted the 2020 War on the Rocks analysis that revealed this arrangement.
Turkey may consider such an arrangement worthwhile if it reopens the F-35 option. But again, the U.S. probably won’t settle for anything less than Turkey removing the systems and all its components from the country. Washington also probably wouldn’t settle for Turkey storing them somewhere like the breakaway Turkish Republic of Cyprus, an entity only recognized by Ankara.
Arguably the most noteworthy part of the Cumhuriyet report is its claim that Ankara still wants both F-35A and F-35B models. Before its ban, Turkey had sought 100 F-35As for its air force. It also showed interest in acquiring 19-20 F-35Bs, the short take-off and vertical landing version, for the TCG Anadolu, a Turkish amphibious assault ship based on Spain’s Juan Carlos I.
After its removal from the F-35, Turkey has focused on developing its indigenous TF Kaan jet fighter for its air force. It has also developed naval drones and a jet-powered unmanned fighter—the Bayraktar TB3 and Kizilelma, respectively—for the Anadolu.
Turkey will push ahead with most, if not all, of these projects. However, it may have concluded that an F-35 acquisition would still have substantial benefits.
F-35Bs for its navy would give it a manned fighter to enhance fleet air defense. F-35As for the air force could also go a long way in replacing many of Turkey’s older F-16s, even if Ankara ultimately acquires significantly fewer than 100. After all, Turkey would no longer need to rely solely on producing the TF Kaan, which it also intends to offer for export, in larger numbers to replace those fourth-generation fighters in the coming decades.
