Russia is “surprised” that Turkey continues to supply Ukraine with weapons while at the same time attempting to act as a mediator in the conflict between the two countries, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has remarked to Turkey’s Hurriyet newspaper.
“Turkish weapons are used by the Ukrainian armed forces to kill Russian military personnel and civilians,” Lavrov said in an interview published on November 1.
“This situation cannot but perplex, given the Turkish government’s statements that it is ready to provide mediation services,” he said.
Lavrov’s comments themselves may cause considerable surprise given that Turkey has quite openly been supplying Ukraine with weapons since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022. For instance, a month after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine kicked off hostilities, Kyiv said a new shipment of Turkish Bayraktar TB-2 combat drones had been put into service to boost the Ukrainian war effort.
So why, analysts will ask, is Lavrov raising this issue now?
Though a Nato member, Turkey does indeed set out to maintain amicable ties with both Kyiv and Moscow, and often points to how it could serve as a trusted mediator in any fresh emerging effort to secure peace, though last week, to the consternation of Ukraine, the US and European Union, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended a summit of the BRICS intergovernmental group in Kazan, Russia, hosted by Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Ahead of the summit, Turkey made plain its interest in joining BRICS—an economic grouping that has increasingly taken on geopolitical importance to “Global East” and “Global South” countries—though during the occasion it became clear that BRICS member India has deep reservations about Turkey taking membership in the bloc because of its strong relations with New Delhi’s arch-rival Pakistan. A number of such objections to various countries joining BRICS were heard at the summit and Putin, who has invested much political capital in building up BRICS, may have been disappointed at the lack of firm steps taken towards expansion.
With Turkey still an EU applicant country—though its application has been frozen since at least 2018—Brussels made plain its annoyance at Erdogan’s attendance at the BRICS summit.
Perhaps looking to ease tensions on that front, Erdogan, on October 28, Erdogan said that his country’s developing relationship with the BRICS countries did not mean that Ankara saw BRICS as an alternative to its path to the European Union.
“We have a significant potential for cooperation with the countries in BRICS,” Erdogan said. “And let me repeat, developing relations between our country and BRICS is not an alternative to our ongoing engagements. In all of these platforms, Turkey is a Nato ally and a country that is running negotiations for full ascension to the EU.”
So, as ever, Turkey is hedging its bets, trying to place itself in the best position to get the most it can from its relations with all the major powers depending on various outcomes, such as the course of the Ukraine war and the upcoming US presidential election.
Middle East Eye (MEE) on November 1 reported ahead of that election in four days’ time that Turkey’s government cannot decide if its interests would be best served by a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency.
“Many observers in Turkey believe President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is awaiting the election results in the United States before making his own policy decisions, even over his cabinet staffing,” the publication wrote.
Looking at the Erdogan-Trump relationship that existed during Donald Trump’s 2017-2020 presidency, it cited Erdogan administration insiders as complaining that Trump would often make promises and deals “that wouldn’t result in any progress or follow-up”.
MEE added: “Apart from big promises and attention-seeking statements, little to nothing was achieved [by Erdogan and Trump] together during the first Trump term, they [the insiders] say”.
