When I returned to Washington two years ago as a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution, working on Turkey, I was taken aback by the noticeable lack of interest in Turkey across the capital. Despite the backdrop of a major war in Europe, just north of Turkey’s Black Sea coast, the usual Washington chatter about Turkey had all but vanished. My memory of jostling across town between different Turkey events as a young reporter was now replaced by a seemingly impermeable Turkey apathy.
This was not, of course, merely a reflection of shifting geopolitical priorities but a sign of the ongoing deterioration in U.S.-Turkey relations. Historically, Ankara was seen by U.S. policymakers as a vital trans-Atlantic ally as well as a crucial regional partner in a tough part of the world—a legacy that outlived the Cold War. Fears of Turkey becoming “irrelevant” to Western interests were always there but somehow the end of the Cold War made Turkey even more relevant, amidst America’s deepening involvement in the Middle East after September 11, 2001. Turkey was no longer just a vital regional partner but potentially also a model of how democracy could work in the Muslim world. There was optimism in Brussels about Turkey’s European Union accession process, including the long string of democratic reforms but also the potential transformative power of the conservative Justice and Development Party in the post-Arab Spring Middle East.
All that optimism has long faded. Over the past decade, a series of events including the U.S. partnership with the Syrian Kurds, Turkey’s democratic backsliding, Turkey’s purchase of Russian missile systems, and the political fallout from the 2016 coup attempt have all contributed to the unraveling of this Cold War marriage.
In trying to manage a fraught partnership, the Biden administration has adopted a somewhat distant approach toward Ankara. The policy community has largely followed. Yet Turkey remains a consequential middle power and a capable NATO ally in a crucial part of the world. It sits between two hot wars and has developed defense industrial capabilities that many European nations lack. Though mostly pursuing an autonomous foreign policy, Ankara is a regional heavyweight—with the ability to help shape, hinder, or enhance U.S. policies in the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and the Levant.
At a time of global disorder, the United States and Turkey need a geopolitical reset. It is more important than ever to revisit the U.S.-Turkey relationship with fresh insights and a good dose of pragmatism—hoping to identify mutually beneficial prescriptions to address today’s enormous economic and geopolitical trials for both countries.
This scene-setter is intended to introduce a collection of short essays, “Solving Washington’s Turkey conundrum,” which have been written by some of the best scholars in the field. The Brookings Institution has a longstanding tradition of fostering dialogue on Turkey, a legacy that dates back to the establishment of the Turkey Project in 2004 under the leadership of Brookings President Strobe Talbott and Director of the Center on the United States and Europe Phil Gordon. In this collection, our contributors have addressed whether or not it is possible to overcome the deficit of trust between the two capitals; Turkey’s complicated “frenemy” status with Russia; the question of how the West can support Turkey’s democratic evolution, despite headwinds inside Turkey’s nationalist coalition; building a new security partnership with a more independent Turkey; and finding the best approach to right-sizing the role of Turkey in U.S. foreign policy priorities.
The essays are grounded in the realities of our time, recognizing both the potential and limitations of cooperation across various domains. More importantly, they reflect a diversity of views on Turkey and the varying geopolitical considerations surrounding the Turkey debate.
Hopefully, this compendium will reenergize the Turkey debate in Washington and offer guidance for the incoming administration in January 2025. We also hope it can accurately reflect the search for new policies in Ankara and Washington to put guardrails around the decades-long alliance to prevent further unraveling and to finally turn a page.
