Russia blames the West for the recent escalation as the US and the UK have permitted Ukraine to fire their missiles into Russia, something Russia considers crossing of a red line. The US blames Russia for escalation. It says it allowed Ukraine to use its long-range ATACMS missiles because Russia has started fielding North Korean troops. No doubt, the war is escalating after several occurrings in rapid succession, including Putin lowering Russia’s nuclear threshold.
However, with Donald Trump set to take over as the President of the US after two months, the conflict is likely to resolve since he has said he would end the war.
Putin talks up the threat
In a public address on Thursday, Putin said Moscow reserves the right to strike the military facilities of countries that allow their weapons to be used against Russian territory, threatening the US and the UK. “We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” he said.
Putin said Moscow has always favored a peaceful resolution and is ready to resolve all contentious issues. “But we are also ready for any development. Do not doubt it, there will always be a response,” he added.
Putin confirmed that Russia has used its latest hypersonic ballistic missile system, nicknamed ‘Oreshnik’ (Hazel in English), during a strike on a Ukrainian defense industry facility in Dnepropetrovsk on Thursday morning. The missile is part of Moscow’s new generation of medium-range weapons and reportedly travels at speeds of up to Mach 10 (2.5-3 kilometers per second), as per an RT report. Putin emphasized that no existing air or missile defense systems, including those deployed by the US in Europe, are capable of intercepting the Oreshnik. “There are no means of countering such weapons today,” he said, adding that the strike successfully hit one of Ukraine’s largest Soviet-era industrial complexes producing rocket technology. Putin highlighted the strategic advantage of Moscow’s new missile technology, stating that Western defense systems, including those at US bases in Europe, are powerless to intercept them.Russia has added the recently opened US missile defense base in Poland to its list of possible priority strike targets due to its “obvious potential” to weaken Moscow’s deterrent forces, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a weekly briefing on Thursday.A few days earlier, Putin lowered Russia’s threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, a long-planned move whose timing appeared designed to show the Kremlin could respond aggressively to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with American long-range missiles. The decree signed by Putin implemented a revised version of Russia’s nuclear doctrine that Putin described in televised remarks in September. But the timing was clearly meant to send a message, coming just two days after the news that President Biden had authorised the use of US-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia.
Is Putin bluffing?
Russia firing a nuclear-capable missile into Ukraine is Putin’s way to convey an important message to the West. Fabian Rene Hoffmann, a weapons expert at the University of Oslo, told The New York Times that from a Russian perspective, “what they would like to tell us today is that ‘Look, last night’s strike was nonnuclear in payload, but, you know, if whatever you do continues, the next strike might be with a nuclear warhead.’”
Although other Russian missiles that have been launched into Ukraine can also carry nuclear weapons — like the Iskander and the Kh-101 — what makes the intermediate-range missile alarming, in addition to its range, is its ability to fire multiple nuclear warheads when it re-enters the earth’s atmosphere, Tom Karako, director of the missile defense project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told NYT. That makes it difficult, if not nearly impossible, to intercept them. The missiles are also large and can fly far, high and fast, reaching hypersonic speed. It represents “a nuclear saber-rattling for both Ukraine and Europe itself,” Karako said. “It’s a pretty sharp signal.”
However, many think Putin will not risk a nuclear war when he knows Trump will be in charge in the US in two months and is likely to stop supporting Ukraine. It’s possible that Ukraine anticipates Trump will try to negotiate with Russia and is trying to stop Russia from acquiring more of its territory and even pushing it back before a ceasefire. In this scenario, Putin will like to hold as much Ukrainian territory as possible before the negotiations begin. Both the parties could be escalating to gain maximum advantage before Trump calls them to the table and a ceasefire is announced. This negates the possibility of the war taking any catastrophic turn.
However, if Putin feels that he would not be able to get a favourable deal from Trump, he can react unpredictably to any major attack by Ukraine, which means Putin’s new threats can’t be taken lightly. War alarms being sounded by several countries in Europe underline the fragility of the current situation and possibility of a wider war which will risk nuclear conflict.
(With inputs from agencies)
