Ahead of ABC’s September 10 debate in Philadelphia between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the American University historian Allan Lichtman, dubbed as the ‘Nostradamus’ of the presidential election, has sounded the alarm for this year’s results.
Lichtman was one of the few to correctly predict that the Republican presidential hopeful would win in 2016. Following his prior “GOOD CALL,” as Trump hailed it, the American University professor also claimed after the Biden vs Trump debate that the former dropping out of the presidential race could be a “tragic mistake for Democrats.”
However, now that Vice President Kamala Harris has taken over the presidential candidate duties for the Democratic party, Lichtman has forecast, two months in advance, that the first female, first black and first Asian-American VP would prevail over Trump on November 5.
FYI, Dr. Allan Lichtman—a registered Democrat—has a near-perfect record of predicting elections, as he has accurately predicted nine out of the last ten results, as reported by The New York Post.
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What are the election ‘Nostradamus’ Dr Allan Lichtman’s predictions based on?
According to a New York Times video posted on Thursday, September 5, Lichtman’s presidential pick for next term is Kamala Harris. Harris is leading Trump in eight of these categories per his “Key to the White House” analysis, which looks at 13 “keys” to determine a candidate’s prospects of conquering the election. Meanwhile, Trump has three.
Of the 13 categories Lichtman labels as “the constant northern star of political predictions,” these are the eight “keys” Harris won over:
- “Whether the party in the White House is facing a primary”
- “Whether there’s a third-party contestant”
- “The state of the short-term economy”
- “The state of the long-term economy”
- “Whether the sitting president’s party has made adjustments to national policy”
- “Whether there’s social unrest”
- Whether the president faced major scandals
- “The charisma of the challenger”
On the other hand, Trump prevailed over Harris in these three “keys”:
- “Whether the sitting president’s party gained seats in the House during the midterms”
- “Whether the incumbent is running for re-election”
- “The charisma of the incumbent”
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Other two categories that didn’t align with either candidate, according to Lichtman, were:
- “Whether there were any major fiascos in foreign policy”
- “Whether the sitting president had successes in foreign affairs”
American University professor doesn’t see Trump regaining the White House
The 77-year-old historian explained, “Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip. The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight.”
“But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House,” Lichtman continued in the video.
In early August, US election ‘Nostradamus’ even pushed that Ohio Senator JD Vance‘s presence as Trump’s VP pick would influence the outcome.
Foregrounding the vice president choice as “incredibly important,” Lichtman implied on his YouTube channel that the veep should be someone who could effectively take the reins if the president steps down for any reason. “That’s why JD Vance was such a disastrous pick; he would be a horror show as president.”
