Analysts at EastFruit highlight the challenging situation in the European fresh mandarin market at the end of 2024. Consumers are surprised by the high prices, while producers complain that despite the low harvest, demand for these fruits remains relatively low.
According to international fruit and vegetable market expert Fedir Rybalko, the mandarin harvest in Turkey sharply decreased in 2024. Turkey, the world’s largest exporter of fresh mandarins by volume and the third largest by value, plays a crucial role in influencing mandarin pricing in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Additionally, Turkey’s influence on the EU mandarin market continues to grow rapidly.
Marite Gailite, an expert from the Latvian vegetable growers association Latvijas dārznieks, notes that prices for mandarins and citrus fruits in Latvia are unusually high this season. “In the last two weeks of December, supermarkets are offering mandarins of questionable quality at €1.99/kg, and on sale at €1.69/kg,” she says. Despite this, Marite observes that demand for mandarins remains visually high. She points out that in EU countries in 2024, the low mandarin harvest is due to weather anomalies and logistics problems.
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A similar situation with mandarin prices is observed in Italy, where local consumers are not used to seeing retail prices for one of the most affordable seasonal fruits approaching €2 per kg for the cheapest varieties.
EastFruit’s price monitoring confirms that wholesale prices for mandarins this season have set records in most countries in the region. In Poland, Ukraine, and Moldova, mandarin prices are at record highs.
Interestingly, in Central Asian countries such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, mandarin prices are also on average twice as high as usual for this time of year. Additionally, there have been recent supply issues related to the discovery of counterfeit phytosanitary certificates for Pakistani mandarins.
Producers and traders do not perceive the demand for mandarins as particularly high. According to representatives of produce trade, most Turkish packing centers incurred losses at the beginning of the season because they sold mandarins below cost due to a sharp drop in demand in Russia and Ukraine. They had to purchase mandarins from farmers at high prices due to the low harvest, but the sharp decline in purchasing power in Russia due to the devaluation of the ruble and galloping inflation led to a decrease in demand for mandarins.
Mandarin importers in Russia are also incurring losses. They had to buy products at higher prices in US dollars. The devaluation of the ruble led to even higher prices in rubles, further reducing demand for the product. As a result, some importers are forced to sell mandarins below the purchase price.
“Imports of all citrus fruits, of which about 70% are mandarins, from Turkey to Ukraine in December 2023 amounted to 43,000 tons, while in December 2024, it was only 33,000 tons. Therefore, we can state a significant reduction in imports from Turkey. Partially, the reduction in supplies from Turkey is compensated by some increase in mandarin supplies from Greece,” explains Fedor Rybalko.
At the same time, Turkish exporters are in no hurry to sign new contracts for mandarin exports, expecting further price increases. They are confident that the decline in demand in Russia and Ukraine is not an insurmountable problem, as prices for the product in other countries remain high.
Therefore, it seems that cheap mandarins will not be available this season.
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