For the past month, Turkish officials in Ankara have been deeply concerned by the regional escalation between Israel and Iran.
In several speeches, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accused Israel of trying to spread its war on Gaza to Turkey’s borders and said that the region is being engulfed in a “ring of fire” that could threaten Turkish territorial unity.
Many in Turkey have not taken Erdogan’s remarks regarding Israeli territorial expansion seriously. Israel’s focus appears directed towards Iran and its allies, including potential strikes hitting Iranian nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure.
And then something beyond shocking happened: Erdogan’s nationalist ally Devlet Bahceli, a key member of the ruling coalition and the chairman of Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), publicly called for his nemesis to speak at parliament.
After three weeks of overtures towards Turkey’s opposition and pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (Dem) in parliament, Bahceli said Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), must be allowed to make a speech to call on the armed group to disarm.
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Bahceli also added that by doing so, Ocalan might be permitted to use an exception under the European Convention on Human Rights to be released from prison early.
The MHP leader also said a new wave of democratic and economic reforms could be used to satisfy the Kurdish electorate in the process of bringing Turkey’s decades-long conflict with the PKK to a close.
‘Shore up the home front’
As Bahceli made his speech, which he called a development that may change the course of Turkish history, everyone in Ankara started to ask themselves: why now?
All experts interviewed by Middle East Eye said that they don’t think Ankara has taken this step for immediate political benefits, such as a new constitution that would allow Erdogan to serve another term in 2028.
“Ankara’s ruling elites see Israel as a destabilising force in the region and anticipate a possible Iran-Israel conflict,” Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institute think tank, told MEE.
“To shore up the home front, they are contemplating addressing the Kurdish issue through a deal with Ocalan and eventually the PKK, recognising the importance of stability within their own borders.”
Aydintasbas added that addressing the longstanding Kurdish question would reduce Turkey’s primary vulnerability in the region, where it would no longer be perpetually tied down by security operations and concerns.
“More critically, Turkey sees PKK-affiliated Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq as potential tools for its rivals, particularly Israel and Iran, and wants to neutralise that threat,” she said.
Since 2016, Turkey has waged a series of assaults in northern Syria that denied Syrian Kurdish PKK affiliates a continuous stretch of territory along the Turkish border.
Turkish armed forces have seized Jarablus, Afrin, al-Bab and other strategic border towns, and occupied them ever since with the help of allied Syrian rebels.
Intensive land and air campaigns have meanwhile pushed the PKK from Iraq’s northern borders with Turkey, allowing Ankara to establish several military outposts in Iraqi Kurdistan to prevent infiltrations.
Mesut Yegen, a professor who specialises in Kurdish culture, told MEE that the Turkish government believes it is in a “position of strength” and noted that the 2023 elections showed that Kurdish voters were no longer the kingmakers that they had been in domestic politics previously.
Yet Yegen says the government still hasn’t been able to fulfil all its objectives in northern Iraq due to political disagreements with Baghdad. Meanwhile, PKK affiliates were still dominant in northeastern Syria with US backing.
‘Waning Iranian influence’
Kurdish domestic representation in Turkey is strong, he noted, with the Dem party becoming the third largest in parliament.
“The Kurds might find more space to themselves as Iran’s influence is waning in the region” due to Israeli attacks on the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance alliance, Yegen said.
”Ankara doesn’t want the PKK to take advantage of this vacuum of power [created by Israel] since 7 October.”
‘Ankara’s ruling elites see Israel as a destabilising force in the region and anticipate a possible Iran-Israel conflict’
– Asli Aydintasbas, Brookings Institute
Turkish political elites increasingly understand the Kurdish insurgency as an endless conflict with no clear endgame, Aydintasbas added.
Yildiray Ogur, a Turkish journalist who closely follows Kurdish developments, told MEE the 2015 peace process with the PKK failed because the People’s Defense Units (YPG), a Syrian force perceived by Turkey as indistinguishable from the PKK, was able to seize large swaths of territory in northern Syria with the help of Iran and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, who easily ceded control at the time.
Many in Ankara still accuse Iran of undercutting the peace talks by encouraging the YPG’s growth.
Ogur says Israel’s war on Lebanon, where it has pummelled Hezbollah and killed most of its top leadership, “has broken the Iranian nails” in the region, as Tehran is more concerned by the prospect of immediate and direct escalation with Israel.
He added this time the Turkish government is specifically focusing on the disarmament of the PKK in Turkey, similar to how the group ended its armed struggle in Iran in 2011.
“Bahceli is risking his entire career for this endeavour,” he told MEE. “Everyone should treat Bahceli’s statements for the possible release of Ocalan as public gestures and guarantees to ensure Ocalan’s trust in the process.”
However, Bahceli’s proposal won’t go down easy. The PKK attack against a Turkish defence company on Wednesday, a day after Bahceli’s speech, killed five people and spoiled the mood. The PKK later announced that the attack was waged unilaterally by the gunmen and wasn’t a response to Bahceli’s call.
‘Little choice but to coexist’
Roj Girasun, a political pollster, said even though Bahceli’s status as the leader of Turkish nationalism legitimatises the new initiative in the public eye, the large majority of society has become more Turkish nationalist in the last 10 years.
He said that Bahceli wants this process to bear fruit very quickly as Omer Ocalan, a Dem party MP and Abdullah Ocalan’s nephew, was allowed to visit the imprisoned PKK leader for the first time in four years.
“This time, the process would focus on bringing more democratic rights and freedom to the Kurds, but also more welfare,” Girasun told MEE.
“The government may use existing laws to strengthen Kurdish cultural rights, such as on language or establishing more Kurdish institutions at the universities.”
Girasun said that the Kurds mostly demand education in their mother tongue in schools, and the polls indicate it is a demand that has the most support among the Turkish public compared to other Kurdish issues.
There are also others who believe wider Kurdish society must be convinced that the government-led process is a genuine effort and that Selahattin Demirtas, a popular jailed Kurdish leader, must be allowed to play a role.
For example, Kani Torun, a former ambassador and an MP from the opposition Future Party, told MEE that the government has to consider taking steps to strengthen civilian Kurdish politics and engage Demirtas to create a public narrative to counter the perception that the PKK’s armed struggle is the only option for Turkey’s Kurds.
“There might be car crashes during the negotiations and the public opinion should be taken care of,” he said. “And there has to be an outreach to the [Kurdish] elements in northern Syria.”
Torun says if the initiative succeeds, the government might try to realise its new constitution project down the road.
Girasun, on the other hand, said Kurdish democratic political representation may emerge as the final winner in this process, as Demirtas could sway the Kurdish public against armed struggle.
But, Yegen warns, if the new initiative fails, the government might resume the harsh security-focused methods it has used against the PKK and its offshoots.
“Turks and Kurds have little choice but to coexist, given the significant Kurdish populations within Turkey and across its borders in Syria and Iraq,” said Aydintasbas.
