With Donald Trump on course to begin his second term as US president, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is eyeing renewed opportunities for collaboration – hoping to rekindle the close relationship the two shared during Trump’s first presidency.
Erdogan, who congratulated Trump as a “friend” on social media, sees this as a chance to reshape US-Turkey relations.
During Biden’s presidency, engagement was largely limited to foreign ministers – marking a stark contrast to the “strong leader-to-leader relationship” Erdogan and Trump had enjoyed, says analyst Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara.
Trump and President Erdogan met face to face about nine times, compared to only two “brief encounters” with Biden, he adds.
Chemistry
Erdogan often speaks warmly of his dealings with Washington during Trump’s first term in office.
“The chemistry is the same. Two charismatic leaders, two leaders who are unpredictable,” notes Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Yeditepe University.
He believes their personal rapport could set the stage for greater bilateral and regional cooperation, including efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
Erdogan has long sought to play a role in ending the Russia-Ukraine war, given his close ties with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and, more controversially, with Vladimir Putin – a relationship that drew criticism and suspicion from some of Turkey’s NATO partners.
“Trump will push for negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war. And I think that’s something that Turkey has always preferred,” predicts Asli Aydintasbas a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
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YPG policy
Erdogan will also look to Trump for changes in US policy toward the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia that Ankara views as linked to the PKK, a group fighting the Turkish state.
The YPG’s alliance with Washington against the Islamic State has strained US-Turkey relations, with Biden resisting Erdogan’s calls to end support for the group.
Former Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen predicts Erdogan will hope Trump might be open to a deal.
“Erdogan thinks that, like himself, Trump too is a pragmatic leader. So leaving aside principles or other such in brackets, the two sides can reach an agreement by giving and taking something between the two,” says Selcen.
Unpredictability
While Trump has often spoken positively about Erdogan, he nonetheless remains unpredictable.
“Can you rely on him?” asks Murat Aslan of SETA, a Turkish pro-government thinktank.
Tensions between Turkey and Israel could also complicate relations.
Erdogan has expressed hope that Trump will succeed where Biden failed in ending Israel’s war on Hamas and Hezbollah, but with Trump’s strong support for Israel and Erdogan’s backing of Hamas, a clash could be looming.
“What happens if there is an escalation in the Middle East with the polarisation of Israel and Turkey, as it currently is, and the attitude of Trump, it’s very clear that the Trump administration will threaten Turkey,” says Aslan.
With conflicts raging across the region, Erdogan views a new Trump presidency as an opportunity for Turkey and the region.
But given the leaders’ unpredictability, that opportunity doesn’t come without risks.
