The International Institute of Finance (IIF) has published its Global Outlook Report, highlighting that geopolitical tensions are contributing to increased global uncertainty. The IIF forecasts that global economic growth will decrease from 3.1% in 2023 to 2.9% in both 2024 and 2025.
The report stresses that conflicts in the Middle East and rising tensions between the U.S. and China are exacerbating global instability. The IIF noted that these geopolitical risks are likely to continue influencing economic conditions, underscoring how political events can significantly impact global economic performance.
Türkiye’s economy expected to grow 2.7% in 2024
Regarding Türkiye, the IIF forecasts a 2.7% economic growth rate for 2024.
The report also touches on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) anticipated monetary policy in 2024, predicting a potential 100 basis point rate cut. According to the IIF, “This reduction could have a significant impact on global financial markets.” The lower U.S. interest rates are expected to benefit emerging markets like Türkiye, though regional risks may vary.
US and China economic projections
For the U.S. economy, the IIF anticipates a growth rate of 2.4% in 2023. However, the report warns that aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed in recent years may result in slower economic growth in 2024.
“Labor market slowing, pressures on household incomes, and decreased consumer spending are expected to manifest in 2024,” the report states.
In China, while a growth rate of 4.7% is projected for 2024, the IIF highlights broad-based deceleration in key sectors. Recent data points to stagnation in major industries, which could negatively affect global trade and investment flows. The report suggests that China’s weakening economic momentum poses a significant risk to the global economy.
Eurozone faces economic struggles
The IIF also notes that the Eurozone’s economic outlook remains challenging. The region is expected to see only 0.5% growth in 2024, a figure that aligns with the previous year’s low performance.
Focus on US-China relations and upcoming US election
The IIF underscores that the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November is likely to be the most significant political event of 2024.
The election could influence global trade policies and have lasting effects on international economic growth. The report also emphasizes that U.S.-China relations remain a key factor to watch, as political uncertainties between the two nations are expected to shape the global economic landscape.
