A busy economic agenda awaits policymakers and Turkish officials beginning from October until the end of the year with a string of data and updates, including monthly foreign trade figures, inflation, tourism data and preparations for the central government budget.
The next week is going to be marked with September inflation data that would likely show the further drop compared to the reading of 51.97% in August, and will come only a day after Trade Minister Ömer Bolat announces preliminary export and import figures for the month.
The economists polled by Anadolu Agency (AA) last week expected Türkiye’s annual inflation to fall to 48.11% in September. Some 17 economists’ monthly inflation forecast was also at 2.09%, down from 2.47% from a month ago.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will reveal inflation figures on Thursday, Oct. 3 at 7 a.m. GMT (10 a.m. local time).
The same day, Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Fatih Karahan is also set to make a presentation at Parliament’s Planning and Budget Commission.
Karahan is expected to make a comprehensive presentation to MPs at the commission within the framework of global developments, the Turkish economy, inflation and monetary policy.
Türkiye has seen a period of tight monetary policy as the central bank embarked on a long cycle that lifted its main rates by 4,150 basis points in some nine months from last June through March this year, in a bid to contain elevated inflation.
The Turkish statistical authority will also throughout the month announce the labor force statistics on Oct. 10, and a day later, other key economic data such as trade sales volume and turnover indices for the period covering the month of August.
The unemployment rate in Türkiye decreased by 0.4 points compared to the previous month and became 8.8% in July, according to TurkStat.
Moreover, the balance of payments data will also be shared with the public by the central bank on Oct. 11.
Tourism, Teknofest
The end of the month will also see the announcement of third quarter tourism statistics, covering the period of July to September, which will provide fresh insights into revenues.
The tourism sector has seen a robust second quarterly performance, while the recent data by the Culture and Tourism Ministry showed that foreign arrivals surged nearly 7% in January-August when compared to the same period last year, to hit nearly 36 million.
Separately, between Oct. 2 and Oct. 6, Türkiye’s largest technology and aviation festival Teknofest will welcome all enthusiasts in the southern province of Adana.
After having three large events last year to mark 100 years of the Turkish republic, the festival is set to present the latest technological advancements and host the most successful teams and winners of competitions organized within the scope of this year’s Teknofest at Şakirpaşa Airport in Adana.
At the same time, the preparations of ministries and institutions for the 2025 budget are also continuing intensively. The 2025 central government budget should be submitted to Parliament in October.
Later in November, all eyes would once again turn on the central bank, which is set to present this year’s last quarterly inflation report on Nov. 8.
The messages of governor would be closely followed by the markets to see indications of future policy path. Prior to the report, the central bank committee would convene one more time at the end of October.
By slightly changing the wording in the latest meeting, the CBRT dropped the signal of further tightening and some analysts and financial institutions are penning the potential first rate cut for November.
Late in November, TurkStat is also expected to announce the gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter of the year.
