Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.10.
- Set a stop-loss order below 33.99.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.30.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.51.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.99.
This chart produced by the TradingView platform.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair has been trading within a narrow range for several weeks, with the Lira showing a slight upward trend compared to yesterday. Currently, markets are anticipating the Central Bank of Turkey’s interest rate decision today. Most analysts expect the Monetary Policy Committee to keep rates unchanged, while some predict a potential 2.5% decrease.
Meanwhile, the expectation for unchanged rates (50%) for the seventh consecutive month stems from lower-than-expected inflation data released earlier this month. The Central Bank’s preferred inflation indicator remained stable at 3% monthly.
Furthermore, current expectations suggest rates will remain high until early next year. Also, the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank emphasized continued monetary tightening until a sustained, monthly decline in inflation is achieved.
The minutes from the Central Bank’s previous meeting revealed a softening stance on further rate hikes, reflecting anticipated inflation slowdown. Bloomberg reported that policymakers are focusing on both the decreasing rate of monthly price growth and improving inflation expectations from business and household surveys, using these factors to determine the future interest rate path.
Western reports suggest Turkish President Erdogan, who shifted from unconventional monetary policy after last year’s election, is growing impatient with prolonged tightening. These reports indicate Erdogan Favors a growth-at-all-costs strategy.
TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, The USD/TRY pair is trading sideways within an established ascending price channel over the past few weeks. The dollar price in Turkey currently averages around 34.20 TRY, finding support from the 50-day moving average on the 4-hour timeframe. Also, the pair is expected to continue within its overall uptrend. Decisively, any decline in the dollar price presents a buying opportunity for the Lira, as long as it remains within the price channel.
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