As Syria enters a new phase of recovery following years of conflict, energy stands out as one of the most pressing priorities. With the lifting of sanctions and efforts to utilize the country’s oil resources, Türkiye is expected to play a key role in Syria’s energy sector revitalization.
Devastating impact on Syria’s energy sector
Syria’s energy infrastructure has suffered extensive damage during the prolonged conflict.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the country’s electricity generation capacity, which stood at approximately 9,000 megawatts in 2012, has been significantly reduced. Of the 39 energy facilities in the country, 15 were completely destroyed and 10 partially damaged. Additionally, over half of Syria’s electricity transmission infrastructure is no longer operational.
Estimates suggest direct losses in the electricity sector amount to $40 billion, while indirect losses total around $80 billion. Despite a 2021 law promoting renewable energy investments, only 100 megawatts of solar energy capacity have been installed.
Syria possesses considerable renewable energy potential, with approximately 300 sunny days annually and an estimated wind energy capacity of 80,000 megawatts, according to ScienceDirect research.
- Syria’s energy sector is in turmoil because of the ongoing civil conflict that began in the spring of 2011, with oil and natural gas production declining dramatically since then.
- Syria’s oil sector has been in a state of disarray since 2011. Production and exports of crude oil have fallen to nearly zero, and the country is facing supply shortages of refined products.
- Syria’s oil production, which averaged over 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) between 2008 and 2010, was less than 25,000 bpd in May 2015.
- Syria’s crude oil exports are assumed to have ceased, and the country is having difficulties importing refined petroleum products.
- The combined capacity of Syria’s two refineries has fallen to roughly half its pre-conflict output.
Syria’s oil reserves and decline in production
Syria’s proven oil reserves are estimated at around 7 billion barrels, primarily located in northeastern regions such as Hassakeh and Deir ez-Zor. Smaller reserves are also found in Raqqa, while Homs remains the primary region for natural gas production.
Before the conflict, Syria’s daily oil production averaged 400,000 barrels between 2008 and 2010. However, this figure plummeted to 25,000 bpd by 2015. Despite being rich in resources, much of Syria’s oil reserves remain under the control of terrorist groups.
Potential for oil production growth in 5 years
Oguzhan Akyener, president of the Turkish Energy Strategies and Policies Research Center (TESPAM), highlighted the need for clearing terrorist groups from oil-rich regions before production can resume.
Once security is established, Akyener noted that proper planning of licensing, regulatory frameworks, and infrastructure is essential for efficient oil production. With these measures in place, Syria’s daily oil production could initially reach 150,000–200,000 barrels and potentially climb to 1 million barrels within five years.
Once this is done, oil-related legislation, licensing processes, production processes, all of these need to be planned during the state-building process. After these plans are made, licenses in the region should be shared with certain companies and production should be started under the operatorship of those companies.
Oguzhan Akyener
Türkiye’s strategic role in energy exports
Akyener emphasized Türkiye’s strategic role in transporting and refining Syrian oil, given its advanced infrastructure and geographical advantages. Transporting oil to Türkiye for processing in refineries and then exporting it through the Ceyhan terminal could offer a practical and efficient solution.
He added that Türkiye’s energy infrastructure is well-positioned to address Syria’s immediate energy needs, including the refining of diesel and gasoline, which remain scarce in the war-torn country.
We estimate that Syria can reach a production potential of 1 million barrels per day in the next 5 years with the production of new fields. For this, processes such as rehabilitating the existing fields, bringing the unproduced fields into production, making investments, and laying pipelines need to be followed one after the other.
Oguzhan Akyener
Economic impact of oil revenues
Projections suggest that if Syria’s daily oil production reaches 1 million barrels, annual revenues could total approximately $21 billion to $22 billion. While this figure may not attract major global players, it is significant enough to support Syria’s reconstruction efforts.
Many Western countries have started to contact the new government in Syria. The embargoes will be lifted anyway, but even if the embargoes are not lifted, Türkiye will still be able to create an opportunity for the sale of this oil.
The most important issue in creating this opportunity and utilizing the oil in Syria is to carry out this work together with Türkiye. How will you transport the oil from where to where Türkiye is also the most important market in the region.
There may be an oil pipeline extending to Latakia, but the most logical way and the fastest way to move the process forward is to bring this oil to Türkiye, to process it in refineries in Türkiye, to turn some of it into products, and to meet Syria’s energy hunger urgently.
It is even difficult to find diesel and gasoline in Syria. After doing this, it would be a faster and more practical option to connect the system to Türkiye step by step, perhaps to land in Ceyhan, and to utilize the oil transportation from there.
Oguzhan Akyener
Akyener noted that Turkish firms are well-equipped to oversee and manage every phase of this process, contributing significantly to Syria’s economic and infrastructure recovery.
