The Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, is expected in Turkey for high-level meetings. The emir’s visit is significant not only from the point of view of economic cooperation between the two countries, but also especially given the possibility that the political office of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas will move from Doha to Ankara in the near future. Over the weekend, diplomatic sources told international media that Qatar had decided to end its role as a mediator in negotiations between Israel and Hamas, and that it had agreed to expel the Islamist movement’s leaders from the capital Doha following a request from the United States after months of failed attempts to convince the Palestinian group to accept a truce agreement in the Gaza Strip. Following the news of Qatar’s alleged withdrawal from mediation, a high-level Hamas official said that the Islamist group had not received any indication from the Gulf country to leave Doha, where its political office has been based for years. “Agenzia Nova” spoke about it with Giuseppe Dentice, head of the Middle East and North Africa desk of the International Studies Center (CeSI), according to whom the factors that will influence the potential transfer of the Hamas office are mainly two: the future administration of the United States of the Republican leader Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, 2025; a possible push by Israel to accelerate the crisis context in the Middle East, particularly in the confrontation with Iran.
According to Dentice, the visit of the Emir of Qatar to Turkey scheduled for tomorrow is extremely important because, in addition to being a high-level visit, “it should be a decisive meeting to define what has been long-awaited in Ankara as the signing of the Free Trade Agreement” with Qatar. This signature will “follow other agreements signed with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia and confirms once again the trend of economic recovery by managing to attract more foreign investments, especially from the Gulf area, and therefore having a positive impact on the Turkish economy itself, which is currently experiencing a situation of moderate recovery also by virtue of the drop in inflation”, explained Dentice. Some of the driving sectors in this sense, which could be of interest “also and above all” for Qatar, are those of logistics and defense “which over the years have become a flagship for Turkey itself”, added the CeSI analyst.
The high-level discussions that Qatari head of state Al Thani will hold in Turkey could have “an indirect impact” on the potential transfer of Hamas’s political office from Doha, Dentice told Nova. Reports in international media suggest that the move of Hamas’s “politburo” from the Qatari capital to Ankara is very likely, but Iraq, Lebanon and Iran (an ally of the movement against Israel) are not ruled out as destinations. However, a source from the Turkish Foreign Ministry told the pro-government newspaper Daily Sabah that Hamas “will not move its political office to Turkey.” “We already talk regularly with Hamas and provide the necessary encouragement,” the same source said. It is worth remembering that Turkey does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization and this position, according to analysts quoted by Daily Sabah, could push Ankara to play a significant role in mediating between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist movement to end the war in Gaza.
According to what Dentice told “Nova”, the timing of Qatar’s alleged decision to expel Hamas leaders “is not coincidental, it demonstrates Doha’s very desire to reposition itself towards the United States”. A move – according to the expert – aimed at “trying to send a signal of discontinuity to the future new US administration” of Trump, “which could have much more blatantly hard positions towards Israel and therefore, from this point of view, it is a way like any other to try to enjoy advantages accumulated over the decades”. The CeSI analyst also underlined that “Doha’s exit from the mediation tables (to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of the hostages) will not necessarily lead to Hamas abandoning it, at least not immediately. It could happen in the near future, but much will depend on the international and Middle Eastern scenario, especially in relation to the war in Gaza and possible new reprisals and counter-reprisals between Israel and Iran. In this sense, there are more external elements that could contribute to redefining the diplomatic and international security plan”.
“Turkey would be the ideal candidate” as the new headquarters of Hamas’ political office, but Ankara also has a strong interest in “positioning itself in a positive way, because it is a member of NATO,” Dentice told “Nova.” According to the analyst, Turkish President Erdogan, moreover, “has an interest in maintaining a stable relationship with the future Trump administration and, from this point of view, welcoming Hamas into the house would not be a good calling card.” Therefore, the expert added, “scenarios could open up that also look to Iraq, given that in recent months Iraq has been a country that has seen the opening of important political offices of Hamas itself, but also of the Houthis (the pro-Iranian Yemeni movement).” Much of what happens in the regional context will depend “on factors that are not so much tied to the Doha negotiating table or the interests of the Gulf actors, but will come more from a direct desire of the United States to send signals of various kinds or from Israel that wants to take advantage of the transition for a more muscular approach,” Dentice explained. For his future administration, Trump has chosen Florida Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Florida Representative Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor and New York Representative Elise Stefanik as Ambassador to the United Nations. These are three figures that Israel can legitimately count among its closest allies in Washington. Waltz, a former Green Beret in the United States Army, has said he is against a ceasefire in the Middle East, which “would leave Hamas terrorists in power in Gaza.”
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