The United States (U.S.) held one of its most consequential elections last Tuesday, and former President Donald Trump was reelected after a four-year break. This election was seen as significant because its outcome could lead to major shifts, not only in the U.S., but also in the regional and global landscape, due to the starkly different approaches of the candidates. The election of the Republican Party is expected to bring stricter border policies, aggressive strategies to lower inflation, and new economic measures. Additionally, the Republican Party approach is likely to lead to changes in U.S. policy on the war in Ukraine and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East. Another expected shift is whether the U.S. government’s stance toward authoritarian regimes changes.
It remains uncertain how the new administration will implement its proposed policies on key issues such as border control, inflation, and international conflicts, especially given the growing threats from Russia and China. A critical question is whether the U.S. will continue to prioritize its mission of promoting democracy, strengthening the rule of law, and addressing human rights abuses globally. These principles distinguish the U.S. from rising regional powers like Russia and China, which increasingly embrace authoritarianism and opposing democratic values.
Authoritarian leaders have been quick to congratulate President-elect Trump, including Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He wasted no time making a congratulatory phone call to Trump and sending a message on X (formerly Twitter) that read, “I congratulate my friend Donald Trump on his re-election as President of the United States after a hard-fought presidential race.”
Turkiye and the United States have experienced strained relations over the past decade, largely due to changes in Turkiye’s political regime. Key points of tension include Turkiye’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system and its exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet program. The U.S. has raised concerns about the S-400, citing its incompatibility with NATO systems and the potential risk it poses to the security of the F-35 program.
After being elected in 2002 and 2007, President Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi -AKP) shifted toward a more authoritarian approach, controlling the media and restricting free speech. The December 17-25 corruption scandals of 2013 intensified this trend, sending a clear message to Erdogan and his inner circle: their corruption could lead to imprisonment. The December 17 scandal, also known as the Halkbank case, revealed how an Iranian facilitator used Turkish banks, including Halkbank, to open escrow accounts and funnel money to Iran during the period of U.S. sanctions. U.S. prosecutors found that the money was used to finance nuclear proliferation and support Hezbollah and other Iran-backed militia groups in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the December 25 scandal uncovered a corrupt network allegedly led by President Erdogan’s son. One of the individuals implicated was a Saudi Arabian citizen wanted by U.S. authorities for financing Al-Qaeda.
Turkiye’s authoritarianism reached its peak following the suspicious July 15 coup attempt. In 2016, a group of poorly coordinated soldiers tried to overthrow the Erdogan government but failed. However, the investigations into the coup attempt were shrouded in mystery, with serious accusations that the AKP had prior knowledge of the plot, allowed it to happen, and then exploited the aftermath for political gain. Turkiye accused the U.S. government of being behind the coup attempt. The author’s articles on the July 15 coup, as well as his recent interview with a CIA agent stationed in Turkiye during the coup attempt, suggest that the AKP government not only ignored the accusations of its involvement but may have been suspiciously complicit in the plot.
Today, Turkiye is under the most corrupt AKP regime, which is grappling with severe economic problems. Growing dissatisfaction with the regime has turned the country into a major hub for money laundering and the smuggling of humans and goods. Every year, hundreds of thousands of Turks leave the country, and a recent article by the author highlights how strong networks linked to Mexican cartels between Istanbul and El Paso facilitate the illegal crossing of more than 20,000 Turks annually across the southern border.
Turkiye’s drift away from democracy has been costly, not only for the Turkish people but also for its Western allies. The AKP regime has increasingly adopted leverage-based policies that primarily serve the interests of Erdogan and his family. For example, Turkiye has used the presence of more than 10 million Syrian and Afghan refugees as leverage against European Union (EU) countries, pressuring them to remain silent about human rights violations in Turkiye. Whenever tensions rise over criticism of Turkey’s authoritarian practices and the EU speaks out more forcefully, Erdogan threatens to open Turkey’s borders, allowing millions of refugees to enter EU countries and potentially trigger a migrant crisis. This tactic has been effective, as EU countries have generally refrained from criticizing Turkey.
For the United States, Erdogan’s leverage tactics have included threats to shut down the U.S. military base in Incirlik, closer ties with Russia and Iran, and military incursions in northern Syria targeting Kurdish forces, who have been vital U.S. allies in the fight against ISIS and Al-Qaeda. Erdogan’s use of leverage also extended to jailing Pastor Andrew Brunson in 2016, using him as a bargaining chip in an attempt to secure the extradition of Fethullah Gülen, a cleric who had lived in exile in the U.S. and passed away in October 2024.
It is unclear why President Erdogan appears satisfied with the U.S. election results and the victory of President-elect Donald Trump, especially considering the humiliating letter Trump sent Erdogan in 2019 following a Syria crisis. In the letter, Trump wrote, “Don’t be a tough guy. Don’t be a fool. I’ll call you later,” and even displayed the letter in one of his hotels in New York.
Rather than focusing on the strained relations between Turkiye and the U.S., it is more accurate to say that the tension centers on the personal interest between President Erdogan and the United States. Erdogan often presents his own priorities as representing the will of the Turkish people. His methods, such as portraying the U.S. as an enemy, have shaped public opinion in Turkiye over the past decade. As criticism of Erdogan grew, and as sanctions and investigations targeted members of the AKP and his inner circle, Erdogan worked to rally the Turkish public against the United States.
In recent years, Erdogan has repeatedly requested an official invitation from the White House, but it has not been extended. For an authoritarian leader like Erdogan, receiving an official invitation from the White House is a symbol of recognition and importance. Erdogan believes he can secure such an invitation, either due to his experience with the Trump administration or because he knows how to leverage U.S. interests. By threatening U.S. interests in the Middle East or positioning himself as a key player in the Russia-Iran axis, Erdogan may remind the U.S. of his strategic value. He was invited to the White House after creating a crisis in Syria in 2017, which suggests he may have the opportunity to do so again.
The AKP’s drive to influence Americans for its leader’s personal and political gain has never wavered. The Southern District of New York’s recent indictment of Mayor Eric Adams reveals how AKP-affiliated figures from business, academia, and Turkish Airlines have collaborated to sway the mayor. Erdogan will likely continue pressuring the U.S. government to influence the ongoing Halkbank investigation. In October 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected Halkbank’s legal objections, allowing the case to proceed. Erdogan is particularly concerned because the investigation involves Reza Zarrab, an Iranian businessman who violated U.S. sanctions by doing business with Iran. Zarrab, arrested in the U.S. in March 2016, remains a key figure in the case, and the details of the indictment pose a severe threat to Erdogan and his inner circle. These revelations put Erdogan and his family at risk, making it a top priority to seek U.S. assistance, particularly from President-elect Trump, who has supported him in the past. In his 2020 book, The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir, John Bolton revealed Erdogan’s efforts to close the case, suggesting that Erdogan would continue seeking Trump’s help.
The Halk Bank case is a prime example of how money facilitators have violated sanctions in exchange for hefty bribes. Currently, the U.S. government provides grants to universities to research and develop effective policy models for better enforcing sanctions. The findings from this research could help improve the effectiveness of ongoing sanctions against Venezuela and Russia. The Halk Bank case already serves as a key case study, demonstrating how billions of euros were moved after sanctions were breached. Money facilitators opened escrow accounts in Turkiye’s state-owned banks and used trade-based money laundering techniques to transfer the funds.
This investigation has come at a high cost for Turkish investigators, many of whom have been in solitary confinement since 2014. Their families have also faced significant hardships. According to indictments, U.S. prosecutors have worked extensively on the Halkbank case since Reza Zarrab’s arrest in Miami in 2016. It is important to note that the Halkbank case should not be viewed through a nationalist lens by the Turkish people. It is not a matter of defending Turkiye’s honor, but rather a story of how the country’s president and his inner circle sacrificed their integrity for personal gain. Today, the AKP government can easily suppress any opposition using government resources and media.
In conclusion, it is uncertain how much U.S. foreign policy will change under the new administration. While it may lean toward isolationism, the impact of reducing U.S. presence and influence in key regions remains unclear. Another key question is how authoritarian leaders will adapt, particularly after their experiences with the first Trump administration. Many, including Erdogan, have learned that threatening U.S. interests abroad or cultivating personal ties with Trump can influence U.S. foreign policy—or even open doors to the White House. Given the current state of U.S.-Turkey relations, Erdogan may escalate his tactics, threatening or blackmailing U.S. regional and global interests to remind the new administration of his importance. This raises a broader issue: how much weight will the ongoing Halkbank investigation in the U.S. carry in today’s political climate? As Erdogan uses his influence to protect his interests, the work of the investigators could be undermined by political pressure, potentially overshadowing their pursuit of justice. Whether the investigation will proceed independently or be swayed by broader geopolitical forces remains to be seen.
