Euro 2024 Picks and Predictions! Portugal vs Slovenia & more
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his Euro 2024 picks and predictions for the Round of 16 including Portugal vs Slovenia, Romania vs Netherlands and Austria vs Turkey? Read Kevin’s Euro 2024 Tournament Round of 16 predictions and picks below!
Portugal vs Slovenia Picks | Monday, July 1 | 3:00PM ET
Portugal -275 | Slovenia +875 | Draw +365
Slovenia heads to the knockout rounds of a major tournament for the first time in their history after securing third spot over in Group C with three consecutive draws against England, Denmark, and Serbia respectively.
That historic success for Matjaz Kek’s men has largely come on the defensive end, with Slovenia ranking as one of only three teams at this tournament so far yet to allow a single goal from open play, sitting alongside heavyweights France and Spain in that department.
However, they’ll face one such heavyweight here on Monday night in one of the competition favorites in Portugal, a team that topped their group pretty convincingly wrapping up the top spot in their group before the third game had even kicked off.
Portugal’s own defense across this tournament has also been elite, allowing just one goal across their opening two matchups before putting out a backup squad ahead of their matchup against Georgia which they lost 2-0.
However, only England has allowed less total xG to opponents across this tournament so far than Portugal has, and they should have more than enough defensively here to close out a somewhat stunted Slovenian attack on Monday.
We don’t see this being a thriller by any stretch, and while Portugal certainly has the ability to be offensively potent when required, ranking as the top scorers out of any team during qualification, this Slovenian defense has shown itself to be extremely resilient and we don’t see that changing in this match either.
Euro 2024 Prediction: Under 2.5 (-120)
Romania vs Netherlands Best Bets | Tuesday, July 2 | 12:00PM ET
Romania +700 | Netherlands -225 | Draw +335
The Netherlands take on Romania in Munich on Tuesday in a matchup not many envisioned happening back at the start of the tournament, with Romania coming out on top in a group featuring Belgium, Ukraine, and Slovakia.
All four teams finished on the exact same points in that group, but Romania’s superior goal difference was enough to send them through to their first European Championship knockout appearance in 24 years.
The Netherlands meanwhile finished up in third spot behind both Austria and France, a result that has put pressure on manager Ronald Koeman to deliver much better performances ahead of the knockout round.
However, that’s unlikely to happen as the Netherlands’ underlying numbers at this tournament remain poor, with the Dutch teams’ 3.3 shots on target per game ranking among the worst in the entire competition (19th from 24).
Romania have shown themselves to be an extremely well-organized team under manager Edward Iordanescu, with just seven losses recorded across his 27 games in charge, boasting a +12 goal differential also.
In fact, prior to their defeat against Belgium last week, you would have had to go all the way back to June 2022 to find the last time Romania lost a meaningful game, and we use the word meaningful lightly as well as they suffered a 3-0 home loss against Montenegro in the Nations League.
Romania have all the tools to severely frustrate the Netherlands in this game, with an upset not outside the realms of possibility either as the Dutch already experienced a shock loss to the Czech Republic at this same stage in the last Euros.
Whatever way you look at it, getting over a full goal headstart on Romania here simply looks far too big in a game we expect them to be competitive in.
Euro 2024 Prediction: Romania +1.25 (-125)
Austria vs Turkey Picks | Tuesday, July 2 | 3:00PM ET
Austria -110 | Turkey +340 | Draw +230
The final game of the Round of 16 phase sees Group D table-toppers Austria take on Group F runners-up Turkey in what should be a highly exciting matchup over in Leipzig on Tuesday.
Austria were many people’s dark horses coming into this tournament, including our own with us tipping them to edge out the Dutch in Group D, but they defied even those lofty expectations, topping the group outright in first place ahead of both France and the Netherlands.
What manager Ralf Rangnick has been able to accomplish with this squad which came into this tournament missing some of their best players has been nothing short of remarkable, and the Austrians will no doubt fancy their chances of booking their place into a European Championship quarter-final for the first time in their history when they take on Turkey on Tuesday evening.
Turkey has also enjoyed a mildly impressive tournament so far, especially offensively, where they’ve averaged the third most goals and third most shots out of any team in the tournament to date.
However, defensively, there are far more question marks on this Turkish team, with a backline that ranks fourth from bottom in terms of defensive xGA, with no team giving up more chances inside their own 18-yard box at this tournament than Turkey has either.
That should lead to advantage Austria in this one, and despite the fact they haven’t beaten Turkey in a meaningful matchup since 1988, they showed in March’s 6-1 hammering of them in a friendly that they’re more than a match for them in this one.
Euro 2024 Prediction: Austria Moneyline (-110)
Euro 2024 Group Previews:
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