Euro 2024 Picks and Predictions! Portugal vs France & more
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his Euro 2024 picks and predictions for the Round of 16 including Portugal vs France, England vs Switzerland and Netherlands vs Turkey? Read Kevin’s Euro 2024 Quarter Final predictions and picks below!
Portugal vs France Picks | Friday, July 5 | 3:00PM ET
Portugal +240 | Slovenia +140 | Draw +200
France takes on Portugal in the late game on Friday night and it’s arguably been a disappointing run-in for both of these teams heading into this game.
Portugal were forced into a penalty shootout to get past Slovenia in the previous round and the ongoing Cristiano Ronaldo saga continues to leave this team less than focused as his presence on the pitch has arguably cost this Portuguese team some much better results at this tournament.
France meanwhile have looked equally as lethargic in this competition, needing yet another own goal to get past Belgium on Monday, their second of the tournament so far, with France still yet to score a single goal from open play across their run at Euro 2024.
That said, it hasn’t been for the lack of trying as France’s -5.94 xG differential is the biggest out of any team at the tournament so far, and you would feel that if luck does start to turn France’s way at some point, they really do have the ability to click into gear and arguably become the most dangerous team in this competition.
We’re not expecting a thriller in this game by any stretch, with Portugal likely content to try and frustrate the French similar to what the Belgians did in the last round, with four of their last five encounters against one another seeing one or fewer goals being scored.
That goal is more likely to come from France in our opinion however, as they’ve had the better defense across this tournament so far, and have been unlucky in attack, two ingredients as to why we’re picking them on the +0 handicap line (pick ’em) here on Friday.
Euro 2024 Prediction: France +0 (-145)
England vs Switzerland Best Bets | Saturday, July 6 | 12:00PM ET
England +125 | Switzerland +285 | Draw +195
Another abject display from England against Slovakia in the last round has led many fans to become extremely despondent about their team’s chances of winning this competition, even as current favorites and on the easier side of the draw, as England narrowly avoided an early exit on Sunday, pulling the proverbial rabbit out of the hat with a late 95th-minute equalizer, before then going on to knock out Slovakia in extra time.
They’ll face a much stiffer test this weekend however as they take on a Switzerland team that has grown in confidence across this tournament, beating Hungary, then almost beating Germany, before dispatching current champions Italy 2-0 in the last round as well.
That said, that was still a remarkably poor Italian side and Germany had already qualified for the next round at the time of the game, so Switzerland’s performances probably rate somewhere between those two highlights and their less-than-impressive display against Scotland back in the group stage.
Whatever the truth about Switzerland though, to get England at this current plus-money line pre-tournament would be pretty unthinkable, so perhaps we do need to take the recency goggles off for this one and just look at how much the market has moved from their previous encounters.
England go into this game as +122 favorites right now, but were -154 in their last head-to-head meeting two years ago which England won 2-1.
In their previous meeting in the Euros back in 2015, which England also won thanks to a Harry Kane goal, the English went off as -133 favorites in that game, so according to current lines, we’re getting some massive value on England ahead of this quarter-final, even as abject as they’ve been so far.
History is certainly on England’s side as well ahead of this one, owning an impressive W18, D5, L1 record across their last 24 meetings, with that sole loss against Switzerland coming all the way back in the 1981 World Cup qualifiers.
On top of that, no European team has a worse record in quarter-finals than Switzerland do, being at the quarter-final stage of a major tournament on five previous occasions, and being sent home all five times.
England has looked incredibly poor across this tournament so far no question, but the market has over-adjusted in our eyes, and their experience and big game players should get them over the line here against a Switzerland team that has never breached this hurdle in their history.
Euro 2024 Prediction: England -0.25 (-115)
Netherlands vs Turkey Picks | Saturday, July 6 | 3:00PM ET
Netherlands -175 | Turkey +500 | Draw +310
The Netherlands finally kicked into gear in the Round of 16 after looking extremely vulnerable back in the group stage, dispatching the Romanians 3-0 in Munich thanks to Cody Gakpo and Donyell Malen.
That scoreline perhaps flattered the Netherlands a little however as the game was still in the balance at 1-0 with less than ten minutes remaining, albeit the Netherlands were in complete control, before two late goals put a shine on the scoreline and sent the Dutch through to the next round.
They’ll face a far more significant test in this one however as Turkey overcame a valiant Austrian effort in midweek thanks to defender Merih Demiral’s two goals, along with goalkeeper Mert Gunok making one of the saves of the tournament so far in order to deny Austria a late equalizer at the death and send Turkey through to their first European Championship quarter-final since 2008.
The emotion of winning such a highly-charged game as underdogs, one in which they made history also by scoring the quickest European Championship goal in knockout tournament history, may well spill over into this game which perhaps isn’t ideal for Turkey considering they already sit with the worst discipline record in the entire competition currently.
Turkey has amassed 18 yellow cards so far, the highest out of any team, with each of Turkey’s last five matches seeing at least three cards being shown as well, so getting them at a reasonable -1 start here to be out-carded against a team in the Netherlands that owns the second-fewest bookings out of any team at this tournament (from 24 original teams), looks like decent value.
This should be an emotionally charged encounter for the Turks after their big win against Austria just a few days ago, and we could well see that spill over into the cards market for them on Saturday as a result.
Euro 2024 Prediction: Bookings – Turkey -1 (-125)
Euro 2024 Group Previews:
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