The fall of Bashar al-Assad, after a tumultuous and brutal reign that spanned over two decades, marks a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. This event has notably positioned Turkey, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at a potentially pivotal moment not just in Syrian affairs but in broader regional and religious dynamics.
Erdogan’s vision and Syrian policy
Erdogan has long harbored ambitions of reviving Turkey’s influence in the Muslim world, harkening back to the Ottoman era when Turkey was at the epicenter of Islamic governance. His approach to Syrian politics has been multifaceted, shifting from initial support for Assad to becoming one of his fiercest critics after the Syrian civil war erupted. Turkey has supported various opposition groups, including Islamist factions like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), which were instrumental in Assad’s ouster. This support was not just military but also ideological, aligning with Erdogan’s narrative of promoting a form of political Islam that he envisions for the region.
The fall of Assad is seen by some as Erdogan’s opportunity to reshape Syria in a way that benefits Turkey’s strategic interests. This includes curbing Kurdish influence in northeastern Syria, which Turkey views as an extension of the PKK, a Kurdish group it fights domestically.
Strategic calculations for Turkey
Turkey’s approach to Syria remains intricately complex as the region faces growing uncertainty. Hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees — the largest such population globally — Turkey has faced growing anti-refugee sentiment and economic pressures.
By influencing the new Syrian political order, Erdogan could potentially secure Turkey’s borders, manage the refugee crisis, and extend Turkey’s political and possibly economic influence into Syria.
Erdogan, stressing Turkey’s defensive posture, said on Monday, “Turkey has no eye on the territory of any other country. The only aim for our cross-border operations is to save our homeland from terrorist attacks.” Erdogan reiterated on Tuesday that Turkey will not permit the division of Syria, saying, “From now on, we cannot allow Syria to be divided again. Any attack on the freedom of the Syrian people, the stability of the new administration, and the integrity of its lands will find us standing against it.” This strong stance underscores Turkey’s longstanding goal of preventing Kurdish separatists from expanding their influence in northeastern Syria, a region they have dominated since 2012.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s renewed peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) introduces another layer of complexity. Reports suggest these talks include the possible release of imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, whose influence extends across Kurdish-led areas in northern Syria. Since 2016, Turkey has conducted multiple military operations targeting Kurdish forces near its border, cementing a foothold in the region. As Erdogan balances refugee concerns, Kurdish ambitions, and geopolitical shifts, Ankara’s strategy reflects a cautious yet determined effort to safeguard national and regional stability.
Challenges and realities
However, Erdogan’s wish to play a deciding role in Syria’s future is fraught with challenges. Firstly, the reality on the ground in Syria post-Assad is complex. HTS, despite its rebranding from its al-Qaida roots, may not been universally accepted as a legitimate governing body, particularly by Western powers and several Arab states. Its governance in Idlib has been criticized for authoritarian practices, despite its claims of inclusivity. This makes Erdogan’s support for HTS a double-edged sword; while it provides him leverage, it also associates him with a group labeled as terrorist by many nations, potentially tarnishing his broader leadership image.
Consequently, Erdogan’s influence in shaping Syria’s future might be more limited than anticipated. The Syrian people and various factions within the opposition have their own agendas, which might not fully align with Turkey’s. The rapid collapse of Assad’s regime has left a vacuum that multiple actors, including local Syrian forces, international players like the United States, and regional powers like Saudi Arabia, will all vie to fill. This could lead to a fragmented Syria where Turkey’s influence might be contested or diluted.
Turkey vs Saudi Arabia
Erdogan’s competition with Saudi Arabia for the mantle of leadership in the Muslim world has been marked by both ideological and geopolitical confrontations. Erdogan has positioned himself as a champion of political Islam, supporting movements like the Muslim Brotherhood, which has put him at odds with Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, have been aggressively countering the influence of the Brotherhood, viewing it as a destabilizing force.
This ideological rift was starkly evident when Saudi Arabia, along with other Gulf states, severed diplomatic ties with Qatar over its support for the Brotherhood, with Turkey stepping in as Qatar’s protector, thereby challenging Saudi Arabia’s regional dominance. Erdogan’s rhetoric often critiques Saudi policies, especially in relation to Palestine and human rights, aiming to appeal to the broader Muslim populace who might view Saudi Arabia as too closely aligned with Western interests.
On the geopolitical front, Erdogan has sought to expand Turkey’s influence in regions traditionally seen as part of the Saudi sphere, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. His support for various factions in conflicts like Libya and Syria has directly opposed Saudi-backed groups, illustrating a clear rivalry. The conversion of Hagia Sophia back into a mosque was not just a domestic move but a symbolic one, signaling Erdogan’s intent to reclaim a historical and religious leadership role that once belonged to the Ottoman Empire, directly challenging Saudi Arabia’s custodianship of Mecca and Medina.
This competition has also manifested in attempts to lead alternative Islamic alliances, such as Erdogan’s push for a new coalition with countries like Pakistan and Malaysia, to counterbalance the Saudi-led Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). This strategic maneuvering showcases Erdogan’s ambition to redefine what leadership in the Muslim world entails, often at Saudi Arabia’s expense.
Challenges ahead
In a Foreign Policy article titled ‘Erdogan gets his ‘leader of the Muslim world’ moment’, Steven A Cook writes that Erdogan is likely to face many challenges in a post-Assad Syria. “Over and over again, the Turks have overestimated their ability to manage and shape crises in the region. There is no better evidence of this than Syria itself. Now that HTS and the Syrian people have chased Assad out of the country, they need Erdogan a lot less than they did a month ago. It is not clear whether the Turks recognize this reality,” Cook writes in the article.
The coming months will be crucial as Erdogan navigates this complex landscape; his success or failure could redefine not only Turkey’s role in Syria but also its standing in the broader Middle East.
(With inputs from agencies)
