Since Syrian President Bashar Assad’s fall on December 8, Syria has been in a new phase of its civil war. Instead of various rebel groups ganging up on the Assad regime, they are fighting each other. One particular conflict may threaten to put world powers on a collision course. This is the conflict between the Syrian National Army (sna) and Syrian Democratic Forces (sdf).
The sna is a loose patchwork of militias concentrated on Syria’s northern border. The sdf is the armed forces of Rojava, an autonomous Kurdish area in the northeast. By themselves, neither group has much power. But their sponsors do.
The sna is a Turkish proxy group whose main purpose is to act as a Turkish surrogate. One of Turkey’s biggest interests is to weaken the Kurds. For decades, Turkey has struggled to deal with a militant Kurdish independence movement, and the Turkish government claims Syria’s Kurds are affiliated with Turkish Kurdish rebels. If Syrian Kurds gained an autonomous area separate from Damascus, Kurds in Turkey might push for a similar arrangement from Ankara.
The sdf is sponsored by the United States. It has been the U.S.’s partner of choice for years in combating the Islamic State. There are U.S. soldiers in U.S. bases in Rojava right now. The U.S. government gives the sdf hundreds of millions of dollars in funding annually. The U.S. and Turkey are formal allies through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Despite this, Turkey is engaging in a proxy war with the U.S.
Hours after Assad lost Damascus, the sna attacked and captured the Kurdish city of Manbij and the surrounding area. Since then, the sna has continued to skirmish with the sdf. Efforts at ceasefire mediation have failed. Ilham Ahmed, foreign minister of one of Rojava’s governments, told the Free Press on December 18 they expect an invasion of the major city of Kobani any day. Turkish jets are already striking the city.
Since at least December 24, the sdf has been pushing a counteroffensive toward Manbij. But the sna has attacked sdf positions around the Tishreen Dam, an important source of hydroelectric power on the Euphrates River.
How is the U.S. responding? Ahmed claims pleas for U.S. President Joe Biden to pressure Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have fallen on deaf ears. But that doesn’t mean the U.S. is disengaging. Until recently, 900 U.S. soldiers were stationed throughout Syria, especially in Rojava. But on December 19, the U.S. Department of Defense announced an increase to 2,000.
Turkey is continuing its attacks even as the U.S. sends soldiers to the area. Will we see Turkey and the U.S. exchange fire? That scenario is very unlikely. But Turkey escalating a campaign against a U.S. ally while U.S. troops enter the area escalates the risk of the U.S. getting directly involved. Erdoğan doesn’t seem to care.
What Is Turkey’s Endgame?
Problems with militant groups among Turkey’s Kurdish areas is no trivial issue. But considering how much Turkey now controls Syria through its proxy Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a Kurdish group seriously threatening Turkey’s interests at this stage is unlikely.
The fall of Assad’s government has given Turkey unprecedented control over Syria’s affairs. The moment Assad fell, Kurdish groups would have known their fate was in Erdoğan’s hands.
One could claim Erdoğan is taking advantage of the weakness of Biden’s lame-duck presidency. However, President-elect Donald Trump will be entering the White House next month. Trump and Erdoğan have a rocky relationship. During Trump’s first term, Erdoğan abducted an American pastor in the hopes of forcing Trump to send one of Erdoğan’s enemies in the U.S. to Turkey. Trump responded with sanctions that seriously hurt the Turkish economy. Erdoğan knows Trump doesn’t back down from challenges to his authority. Yet he is still pushing this campaign that makes the U.S. look bad.
It seems Erdoğan is ordering these attacks just because he can, and he doesn’t care what anybody else says.
The Future
Erdoğan’s role in Assad’s fall was instrumental. Without Turkish sponsorship, the rebels probably would not have succeeded. It could be easy to see this as a sign Turkey takes its commitments to nato and the Western bloc seriously. Erdoğan’s willingness to fight a proxy war, even a small one, with America shows this is false.
A prophecy in the book of Obadiah indicates Turkey will become more hostile to the U.S. in the near future. Obadiah, referring to Turkey by its ancestral name of Edom, states it will betray America, Britain and the State of Israel, referred to by the name Jacob (see here for more information).
“For thy violence against thy brother Jacob shame shall cover thee,” Obadiah wrote, “and thou shalt be cut off for ever. In the day that thou stoodest on the other side, in the day that the strangers carried away captive his forces, and foreigners entered into his gates, and cast lots upon Jerusalem, even thou wast as one of them” (verses 10-11).
“Jerusalem has always been a focal point of [Turkey’s] empire,” Trumpet contributor Josué Michels wrote in our February issue. “Erdoğan has concrete goals for Syria and Jerusalem. While Turkey may be limited on its own to achieve many of its goals, the Bible reveals that it will commit a massive treachery.”
This prophecy concerns more than the State of Israel. As we wrote in 2023, “We can expect Turkey to continue to ‘exalt itself as the eagle’ [Obadiah 4]—at Britain’s, America’s and the Jewish state’s expense—in the years to come.”
Turkey’s increasing control of Syria plays into this in a big way. To learn more, read “Turkey’s Sacred Quest.”
