Another Middle Eastern regime has been toppled, this time in Syria. Syria is a small country with a population of just over two crore. But in terms of nuisance value to the West it has punched way above its weight. The president, Bashar al-Assad, ran a very harsh government aligning himself openly with Russia and Iran.
To Russia, he provided access to the Mediterranean and to Iran, safe havens from which Hamas and Hezbollah could operate against Israel. Neither endeared him to the US. A concerted effort to remove him from power was therefore inevitable. Nearly half a million people have either been killed or displaced in the civil war that broke out about 13 years ago. During this war some Western powers and Russia also got involved. Assad managed to survive the war but, as it turns out, not for long. Now he and his regime have been chased away by an Islamist group and he is reported to have found safe passage to Russia. It will also take some time for the smoke to clear. Meanwhile the world is wondering how things will pan out. The only thing that’s known for certain is that power has been snatched away from a Shia regime and now rests with a Sunni one. It was one of those anomalies of history that a predominantly Sunni population was ruled by Shias. Now that anomaly too is gone forever.
Who else, apart from the Sunni people of Syria, are likely to benefit from this massive change? Israel, for sure, because of the elimination of Iran from Syria. Turkey, for another, as it not only shares a long border with Syria but also because it has helped to train the rebels. It has also been worried that Syria could break up with a separate Kurdistan. There’s not much love lost between the Turks and the Kurds. The West, however, has been supportive of the idea of a separate Kurdistan. But that can change very quickly now. All Syria’s neighbours will be watching the unfolding scenario in Syria because each has a different concern. But until the new rulers settle down it’s hard to say what’s going to happen. In the meantime, there will be one more reason to worry about heightened uncertainties in an energy exporting region. This sudden addition of another factor that adds to regional and global uncertainty is probably going to be the main outcome at least during 2025. This has been the pattern all over the Middle East ever since the first regime change happened in Iran in 1953. Thanks to the concentration of oil and gas reserves in the vast swathe of land from Turkey to Iran the region has become the cockpit of the world.
The change of personnel in the White House in America might or might not help in mitigating the situation. The president-elect Donald Trump’s moves will be keenly watched. India, a mere bystander, can only keep its fingers crossed that a major conflagration is avoided if and when Iran and Russia decide to counter the new Western influence in the region.
