Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China’s resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.
I’m RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and I’m back after a reporting trip in Taiwan. I’m off again for the holidays but will be back here with another newsletter at the end of the year.
Here’s what I’m following right now.
Beijing Watches Assad Fall
The full effects from the swift collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is still playing out on the ground, but his sudden fall is set to shake up the Middle East and beyond.
Here’s what it means for China.
Finding Perspective: China has been aligned with Assad since Syria’s civil war began in 2011 but largely through its close ties to Russia and Iran, which backed the Syrian leader.
At the United Nations, Beijing has often voted with Moscow, blocking condemnations of Assad as well as cross-border aid. Beijing supported the Assad regime with eight vetoes at the UN, which is half the total vetoes China has ever used.
Beijing significantly reduced its presence in Syria amid the conflict, though it kept building close ties with Assad, eventually culminating in his state visit to China in 2023.
Chinese investment in Syria was scarce, and beyond a strategic partnership agreement and a pledge to join the Belt and Road Initiative there has been essentially no Chinese investment in Syria and no major contracts with Chinese firms in the country since 2010.
So why did Beijing throw its weight behind Assad?
Revisiting The Arab Spring: For Beijing, the biggest issue was the symbolism and appearance of stability that Assad represented, especially given he was first threatened by a popular uprising that then set the Syrian civil war in motion.
The spread of revolutions in the Arab world in 2011 was alarming for the Chinese Communist Party.
Inside China at the time, popular grumbling with corruption at various levels of government was common, and the party was concerned the protests across the Middle East could inspire its own population, especially given simmering tensions in Tibet and Xinjiang at the time.
Added to that was the rise of the Islamic State in Syria. The war led to thousands of Uyghurs, the predominantly Muslim group from western China, traveling to Syria to fight against the Syrian government.
Many of those fighters said they were there to learn how to use weapons and then return to China, and fears over the return of battle-hardened fighters to Xinjiang was one of the pretexts Xi expressed to top party brass to launch the crackdown and camp system in western China that targeted the Uyghur population, according to a set of leaked internal government documents obtained by the New York Times.
Why It Matters: From this logic, Beijing’s support for Assad makes sense, but it’s a big bet that hasn’t paid off.
The fall of Assad is also a reflection of the weakened regional power of two of its main partners: Iran and Russia.
Their inability to prop up Assad indicates they’ve been consumed by the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine, which may be a concern for Beijing looking ahead.
The rapid collapse of the Syrian government is also an unwelcome message at home for Beijing, which was reflected in the way Chinese media covered the events for Chinese viewers.
As images circulated around the world of jubilant crowds and the toppling of statues, Chinese state media’s coverage on CCTV mostly centered around a fixed live shot of Damascus without a crowd in sight.
Three More Stories From Eurasia
1. China Flexes Its Muscles Around Taiwan
Beijing said it is taking “necessary measures” to defend the country’s sovereignty and will not tolerate “separatist” activities, as Taiwan reported another rise in Chinese warplanes and ships near the island.
The Details: Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said China was deploying its largest navy fleet in regional waters in nearly three decades, posing a threat to Taiwan that is more pronounced than previous Chinese war games.
China, which views Taiwan as its own territory, had been expected to launch drills to express its anger at President Lai Ching-te’s tour of the Pacific that ended last week, which included stopovers in Hawaii and the U.S. territory of Guam.
Without any announcement from China on military drills, Taiwan officials are calling the ongoing activity a training exercise and warned it could be used to further violate Taiwan’s territorial boundaries.
China, which views Lai as a separatist, held major military exercises around Taiwan following his inauguration in May and his National Day speech in October. It also held a major drill after Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taiwan in 2022.
2. The California Connection
A Chinese company that owns a California electronics distributor has sent hundreds of shipments of restricted dual-use technology to Russia since the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, including to sanctioned companies with ties to the Russian military, my colleagues Mike Eckel and Mark Krutov report.
What You Need To Know: The findings further highlight the difficulty Western countries have had in trying to choke off the Russian military’s access to Western technology for use in its weapons and operations as its war on Ukraine continues.
At least one component manufactured by the company, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Company Limited, was found in a Russian weapons guidance system recovered from the battlefield in Ukraine, according to a public database maintained by the Ukrainian military.
Yangjie Technology, located in the city of Yangzhou northwest of Shanghai, has sent more than 200 shipments of specific goods to Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to customs records obtained by C4ADS, a Washington-based, nonprofit data-analysis and global-research organization.
The listed contents of those shipments — totaling at least 238 — included electronic components categorized as “high-priority” by the United States due to their potential use in Russian weapons systems, according to the data obtained by C4ADS and shared with RFE/RL, which independently corroborated more than 150 such shipments.
3. China And Serbia Eye New Cooperation On Extraditions
Serbia has extradited five Chinese citizens in the past five years, according to data obtained by my colleague Mila Manojlovic from RFE/RL’s Balkan Service.
What It Means: The data shows extraditions are already taking place. That cooperation is also set to grow as Serbia’s Justice Ministry prepares to submit to parliament a draft extradition law with China that, if passed, would expand the scope of cooperation between Beijing and Belgrade.
That extradition deal, which would regulate the bilateral extradition of citizens charged with crimes, is seen by experts as a response to the influx of tourists and Chinese nationals to Serbia that have corresponded with high-profile Chinese investments and loans for projects through the BRI.
According to data from Serbia’s National Employment Service, more than 45,000 work permits have been issued to Chinese citizens since 2016, the year the ruling Serbian Progressive Party started intensifying relations with Beijing and expanding BRI projects.
Serbia’s Interior Ministry told RFE/RL there are currently 3,433 Chinese citizens registered in the country.
Across The Supercontinent
Looking at 2025: Here’s my look at what’s on Taiwan’s agenda as we prepare to enter 2025, as part of a wider lookahead from across RFE/RL coverage region. My segment begins at 7:25.
Train Links: The first train carrying goods from China to Afghanistan arrived in Mazar-e Sharif on November 23 after crossing through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The Taliban said 55 containers arrived in Afghanistan after a 22-day journey, marking the inauguration of the first direct train link between China and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
The New Normal: From attacks in Pakistan to new episodes in Tajikistan, my colleagues Bashir Ahmad Gwakh and Frud Bezhan look at how new violence in South and Central Asia could affect Chinese investment projects across the region.
A Late Warning: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on December 2 warned her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that Beijing’s support for Russia would “impact” ties with Europe.
One Thing To Watch
According to a draft sanctions package obtaind by RFE/RL, the European Union has proposed for the first time to target Chinese companies and individuals with visa bans and asset freezes over their dealings with Russian firms linked to Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.
The draft version of the sanctions package was first shared with EU countries on November 22 and would still need to be approved before the end of the year by all 27 member states in order to come into effect.
That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.
Until next time,
Reid Standish
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