Regional Situation Overview
Disclaimer
This document was endorsed by the Regional Steering Committee on 9 December 2024 recognising that it reflects data and analyses finalized prior to the Lebanon ceasefire on 27 November 2024 and the collapse of the Assad government in Syria on 8 December. While it provides an overview of the regional situation up to that point, the context remains highly fluid, with significant developments likely to impact the refugee response and needs. Future revisions of this document are anticipated to ensure continued alignment with the evolving situation.
Fourteen years into the Syria crisis, the region faces increasing economic, social, and political challenges, compounded by new large-scale emergencies with regional implications that heighten the needs of both refugees and their host communities. Overall, in 2025 more than 17.4 million people in Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, and Türkiye are in need of some form of humanitarian and development assistance provided by the international community.
The Syria situation remains one of the largest displacement crises globally, with more than 12 million Syrians forcibly displaced, including approximately six million Syrian refugees hosted in neighbouring countries, amid active conflict, natural disasters, deteriorating socio-economic and humanitarian conditions. Up to nine out of ten Syrian refugees grapple with challenges in meeting their basic needs while the support needed by host communities has reached unprecedented levels. In 2024, an estimated 16.7 million people inside Syria needed humanitarian assistance, including 7.2 million who were internally displaced. Following the conflict escalation in Lebanon from 23 September until the 27 November ceasefire, over 900,000 individuals were displaced internally within Lebanon, and 562,000 fled to Syria, with 63% being Syrian nationals. This includes over 400,000 Syrians who returned to Syria under adverse circumstances. While the 27 November ceasefire creates an opportunity for some displaced populations inside and outside Lebanon to return to pre-displacement areas, hundreds of thousands will continue to need assistance both in Lebanon and inside Syria. At the same time, Egypt has become the largest host of refugees arriving from Sudan since the conflict escalation in 2023.
In Türkiye and Syria, millions of people are still rebuilding their lives after the devastating earthquakes of 2023. Meanwhile, the unprecedented developments in Syria will impact the lives of millions of Syrians, both within and outside the country, simultaneously presenting potential opportunities for return while exacerbating risks of new displacement. Health services in frontline areas have largely ceased, and education systems face interruptions due to attacks and school closures. These developments underscore the urgent need for continued support and flexible approaches.
Conflicts in the region have exacerbated economic challenges, with the economies of refugee-hosting countries projected to contract further in 2025, potentially resulting in more people falling into poverty. The economies of the 3RP countries are marked by weak growth, high public debt, hyperinflation, declining foreign investment, and rampant unemployment. These challenges limit fiscal space for services, erode household purchasing power, and push more refugees and vulnerable populations into poverty.
In Lebanon, even prior to the escalation of the conflict in September, the majority of Syrian refugees struggled to cover their basic needs, driving them to adopt harmful coping mechanisms (including removing their child from school, child labour and marriage). The conflict has further worsened their situation, with widespread destruction, damaged shelters, and winter conditions exacerbating vulnerabilities. Many families face constraints in accessing basic services such as education, compounded by restrictive measures in some municipalities and the prioritisation of Lebanese residents for aid.
In Jordan, rising prices and reduced aid have worsened food security, pushing families to prioritise shelter and food over other essential services. In Türkiye, similar economic challenges, notably high inflation and currency fluctuations, compounded by recovery efforts from the 2023 earthquakes have strained overburdened services. In Egypt the sharp increase in refugees escaping from neighbouring conflicts is severely straining national capacities and humanitarian response efforts.
UNHCR has verified or monitored 43,202 Syrian refugees who returned to Syria between 01 January and 31 October 2024 (435,395 in total since 2016). The latest UNHCR return intention survey, conducted in May 2024, indicated that while 57% of Syrians wish to return one day only 1.7% plan on doing so in the next 12 months. Resettlement and complementary pathways remain one of the most viable durable solutions. Syrian refugees are the refugee population with the highest global resettlement needs, with over 933,000 Syrian refugees projected to be in need of resettlement in 2025. With conditions in Syria not conducive for large-scale voluntary returns in safety and dignity, continued support to refugee-hosting countries remains critical to address life-saving humanitarian needs and maintain protection space. Efforts must now also account for the evolving political and security landscape in Syria, which presents new risks for both refugees and returnees.
Meanwhile, promoting the inclusion of Syrian refugees in national systems and enhancing the economic growth of host countries is essential. For this, greater efforts should focus on identifying entry points to remove legal barriers that restrict refugees’ access to the labour market, create employment opportunities and support SMEs. Non-traditional approaches, such as engaging the private sector, employing innovative financing mechanisms, and utilizing financial tools like debt swaps or concessional financing, should be explored to generate employment and stimulate growth. Simultaneously, evidence-based advocacy efforts should promote the inclusion of refugees in labour markets and social protection schemes.