The collapse of Syria’s 61-year Baath regime could reignite discussions about Qatar’s strategic natural gas pipeline project, which was reportedly rejected by Bashar al-Assad in 2009 and has since remained off the agenda, fueling speculation.
According to the UAE daily the National‘s story dated 2009, Qatar had proposed a gas pipeline from the Gulf to Türkiye.
In 2009, the former ruler of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, said, ”We are eager to have a gas pipeline from Qatar to Türkiye.”
Proposed by Qatar in 2009, the $10 billion, 1,500-kilometer Qatar–Türkiye pipeline was designed to transport gas from Qatar’s vast South Pars/North Dome field to Europe via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkish distribution terminals.
According to the Oil & Gas Journal, as of Jan. 1, 2011, Qatar’s natural gas reserves in the Arabian Gulf were estimated at approximately 896 trillion cubic feet (25.4 trillion cubic meters), representing 14% of the world’s known reserves—the third-largest globally. However, Qatari gas has been deemed less viable for Western markets due to the lack of direct pipeline connections, resulting in reliance on costly liquefied natural gas shipments.
Türkiye to give green light
Türkiye’s Energy and Natural Resources Minister, Alparslan Bayraktar, affirmed the country’s support for energy investments in Syria while answering questions from correspondents after the cabinet meeting in Ankara on Tuesday.
Referring to the proposal to transport Qatari natural gas to Europe via Syria and Türkiye, Bayraktar stated, “For a Syria that has achieved unity and stability, why not?” He added, “If this happens, the route must be secure. Hopefully, it will be, as that is our wish.”
Project to connect Qatar to Europe
The Qatar–Türkiye pipeline proposal aimed to deliver natural gas from the Iranian–Qatari South Pars/North Dome gas-condensate field to Türkiye, where it could connect with the Nabucco pipeline to supply European customers. One proposed route to Türkiye was via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria, while another passed through Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq.
Allegedly, Assad refused to sign a proposed agreement with Qatar in 2009. This agreement would have enabled the pipeline to bypass Russia, supplying Europe directly.
According to an Agence France-Presse (AFP) report, Assad’s rationale was to safeguard the interests of his Russian ally, a major supplier of natural gas to Europe. Moscow’s influence allegedly persuaded Assad to reject the deal, ensuring Europe’s continued reliance on Russian gas.
Syria also announced its “Four Seas Strategy” in 2009, a policy intended to transform the country into a transit hub for gas flows between the Gulf, the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and the Mediterranean. This strategy included utilizing the 6,300 kilometers of gas and oil pipelines crossing Syria and leveraging the Euro-Arab Mashreq Gas Pipeline (AGP).
The AGP, which began construction in 2003, was meant to connect Egypt to Türkiye and further link with Europe. However, the Syrian conflict, which erupted in 2011, halted the AGP’s completion.
EU’s shift from Russian gas
Recent developments in EU-Russia relations have further underscored the importance of diversifying energy sources. According to data from the EU Council, the share of Russian pipeline gas in EU imports has plummeted from over 40% in 2021 to approximately 8% in 2023.
When pipeline gas and LNG are combined, Russia’s contribution to EU gas imports has now dropped to less than 15%. Meanwhile, Qatari gas accounts for only 5% of imports, despite the country’s enormously rich reserves. This reduction has been achieved through increased LNG imports and a decrease in overall gas consumption within the EU.
However, the growing reliance on LNG comes with significant disadvantages. The cost of liquefying, transporting and regasifying LNG makes it considerably more expensive than pipeline gas. Additionally, LNG supply chains are vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions and fluctuations in global demand, making them less stable compared to direct pipelines.
The significance of pipeline-based energy transportation continues to grow, therefore, particularly as speculation intensifies around Qatar’s vast untapped natural gas reserves.
