BEIRUT (AP) — For the first time in 50 years, the question of how Syria will be governed is wide open. The end of the Assad family’s rule is for many Syrians a moment of mixed joy and fear, of the total unknown.
The insurgency that swept President Bashar Assad out of power is rooted in Islamist jihadi fighters. Its leader says he has renounced past ties to al-Qaida, and he has gone out of his way to assert a vision of creating a pluralistic Syria governed by civil institutions — not dictators and not ideology.
But even if he is sincere, he is not the only player. The insurgency is made up of multiple factions, and the country is riven among armed groups, including U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters controlling the east. Remnants of the old regime’s military — and its feared security and intelligence services — could coalesce once again.
Foreign powers with their own interests have their hands deep in the country, and any of them — Russia, Iran, Turkey, the United States and Israel — could act as spoilers.
Syria’s multifaith and multiethnic population sees itself poised on a moment that could tip either into chaos or cohesion. The country’s Sunni Muslims, Shiite Alawites, Christians and ethnic Kurds have often been pitted against each, whether by Assad’s rule or a 14-year civil war.
Divisions from the conflict run deep, and many worry about revenge killings, whether against former figures of Assad’s state or — more frightening — whole communities seen as backing the old system.
The civil war displaced half of Syria’s prewar population of 23 million. Many who fled are watching developments closely to determine whether the time has come to return.
Right now there are only questions.
How will Syria be governed?
In the short period following Assad’s abrupt fall, rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has sought to reassure Syrians that the group he leads — Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS – does not seek to dominate the country and will continue government services. He has spoken of setting up a decentralized governance system.
Government officials who remained in Damascus as Assad fled — including Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali — have met with the rebels to discuss the transfer of power.
The Al Jazeera television network reported Monday that HTS had decided to appoint the head of the “salvation government” running its stronghold in northwest Syria, Mohammed Al-Bashir, to form a transitional government. There was no official confirmation.
Details on what form the government will take have been scarce.
The rebels likely did not expect to be saddled with running an entire country when they launched their offensive against Aleppo less than two weeks ago, said Qutaiba Idlbi, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs. The rapid fall of Damascus and the melting away of police and military, left security challenges, he said.
The only existing framework for a transition is no longer relevant. U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254 had called for a political process involving both Assad’s government and opposition groups.
“Everyone’s saying, especially rebels on the ground, ‘That framework is no longer applicable, because there is no longer a regime. We’re not going to give the regime in politics what they lost through military means,’” Idlbi said.
So far, public sector workers have not heeded calls from the caretaker prime minister to go back to their jobs — causing troubles in places like airports, borders and at the Foreign Ministry, said Adam Abdelmoula, the U.N.’s humanitarian coordinator for Syria.
“I think it will take a couple of days — and a lot of assurance on the part of the armed groups — for these people to return to work again,” he said. In the current chaos, U.N. workers have had difficulty accessing the country, and that has hampered distribution of humanitarian aid, he said.
How inclusive will the insurgents be?
The insurgents have sought to reassure Syria’s religious minorities that they will not be targeted, despite HTS’ fundamentalist Sunni Muslim origins.
So far the civil peace seems to be holding. The insurgents have appeared disciplined, working to keep order, with no sign of reprisals. Experts say only time will tell what post-Assad Syria will look like.
“Everyone’s still willing to really engage, really work with others,” said Haid Haid, a consulting fellow at the Middle East and North Africa program of Chatham House. “That sort of positive atmosphere is crucial, but it might not last long.”
Splits could open as decisions are made.
It can’t be guaranteed all the fighters within the HTS will back al-Sharaa’s talk of a pluralist system. Outside Damascus’ historic Hamadiyeh market on Sunday, around a dozen fighters chanted, “Down, down with a secular state” — a sign that at least some among the insurgents may seek a harder Islamist line.
“The opposition is not a homogenous movement,” said Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London.
There are multiple armed opposition groups, including forces in the south who are distinct from HTS and the Turkish-backed groups in the north. Internal fractures within the HTS-led movement, “which may become more salient in the weeks and months to come, may lead to discord and threaten Syrian stability,” Ozcelik said.
There may be pressure to purge former members of Assad’s large state bureaucracy, especially those employed as part of a vast security state that included informers and officers widely hated for torture, abuses and corruption.
Insurgents and many in the public don’t want them to return. But a purge can spark a destabilizing backlash — as when U.S. administrators disbanded Iraq’s army after Saddam Hussein’s fall in 2003, fueling a Sunni insurgency.
Syria’s Alawite population is feeling particularly vulnerable. Assad and his family were Alawites — a branch of Shia Islam — and many among the Sunni insurgents see the community as his loyalists.
The question of the Kurds looms large
Kurdish-led forces allied with the United States have run a semi-autonomous zone in Syria’s northeast for years, where they have been a key player in the fight against the Islamic State militant group. While both were opponents of the government during the civil war, the relationship between the Kurds and the Arab opposition groups is tense.
HTS has been extending an olive branch to the Kurds. Reintegrating the east would likely mean some form of concession to Kurdish autonomy.
But that risks angering neighboring Turkey, which vehemently opposes the Kurdish factions that run Syria’s east. Already, Turkish-backed insurgents allied with HTS have taken the opportunity to push the Kurds out of some pockets of territory, seizing the northern town of Manbij, and clashes have broken out in other areas.
While the insurgents’ largely benign approach to minorities so far has allayed many international worries, Abdelmoula said, “those pockets of fighting are very significant because the fighting is mostly along ethnic lines. And that’s dangerous.”
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Associated Press writers Danica Kirka in London and Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed to this report. Keath reported from Cairo.
