Turkey, Russia and Iran are expected to meet this weekend in Qatar to discuss their response to a shock rebel advance that has dramatically altered the front lines in Syria’s 13-year civil conflict.
The meeting will take place on the sidelines of the Doha Forum, an annual event that attracts senior officials, academics and business leaders from more than 150 countries to discuss common concerns.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan “will meet with the Russian and Iranian ministers … for a meeting under the Astana process” on the sidelines of the forum, a foreign ministry source told Agence France-Presse.
Russia and Iran, which support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, launched the Astana process along with Turkey — which supports some of the rebel factions — in the Kazakh capital, Astana, in 2017. Their goal was to find a political solution to the civil war.
Russia and Turkey succeeded in brokering a ceasefire in 2020 that largely quelled the fighting, leaving Assad in control of all major cities and an estimated 70% of Syrian territory.
But in a stunning offensive over the past week, Islamist rebels Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, and moved on to capture Hama, inching closer to Syria’s third-largest city, Homs.
Hama had remained in government hands since civil war erupted in 2011.
According to Kremlin statements reported by Reuters, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke this week with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, insisting on “the need to end aggression against the Syrian state.”
Erdogan, according to reports, expressed Turkish support for Syria’s territorial integrity but underscored the Assad government’s obligation to “engage in the political solutions” to the crisis.
Turkey, which does not want an independent Kurdish entity in northeastern Syria, has long supported the Syrian National Army, a coalition of armed opposition groups that is at odds with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — a Kurdish-led military alliance that has been a major U.S. partner in the fight against the Islamic State terror group, also known as ISIS.
Days after the start of the HTS offensive, clashes broke out between the rival militias.
Russia, which changed the course of the war in favor of Assad years ago by providing air power, is now distracted by its assault on Ukraine, while Iran, another key backer of Assad, is weakened by Israel’s war against its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza.
While some former U.S. officials with experience in the region say advances by HTS rebels could force Assad and his backers to compromise, others aren’t so sure.
“I don’t think Moscow is ready to accept the end of the Bashar al-Assad government,” said former U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford. “I think Iran, too, wants to see Assad survive, although Iran’s position is particularly difficult.”
James Jeffrey, former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and former special representative for Syria engagement, said the fall of Aleppo was major blow to Assad, and that Iranian and Russian support might no longer be sufficient to retake it.
Retired General Joseph Votel, chief of U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019, pointed out that neither Russia nor Iran wants to risk compromising strategic positions in the region.
“Syria provides Russia with a foothold in the Middle East and access to warm-water ports,” Votel told VOA, referring to Russia’s Tartus naval port on the Mediterranean coast of Syria, along with the Hmeimim airbase near Latakia.
“For Iran, it is crucial to maintain the so-called Shiite Crescent,” he added, describing a predominantly Shiite Muslim area stretching from Tehran through Iraq and Syria to Beirut. “Losing this access and control would be highly significant for them.”
Turkey, for its part, is concerned about any development that would strengthen Kurdish forces in Syria whom it considers to be associated with the PKK — a U.S.-designated terrorist organization that has staged attacks in Turkey in support of that country’s Kurdish population.
Within days after the start of the HTS offensive, clashes broke out between the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army and the U.S.-backed SDF.
“When it comes to the Kurds, [Turkey] has some concerns about their own security, which we certainly have acknowledged and have tried to work with them to mitigate any of the risks that they believe they’re being posed against them,” said Votel.
Ankara, which is hosting 3 million Syrian war refugees, is also seeking conditions that would facilitate the return of some of those people to Syria.
“If there is a ceasefire quickly and we do not have big Russian bombing raids, the liberation of Aleppo is an opportunity for hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees to leave Turkey and return to their homes,” said Ford.
US position
U.S.-backed SDF fighters on Tuesday began a round of renewed fighting against Syrian government forces in the northeast, opening another front in the battle against Assad’s military.
Pentagon officials on Tuesday said the U.S. military carried out a strike in self-defense against weapons systems in eastern Syria, calling it unrelated to rebel advances in the country.
There are nearly 900 U.S. troops in Syria supporting the SDF in its fight against ISIS militants.
White House national security spokesperson Sean Savett said last weekend that the latest turmoil in Syria arose from Assad’s refusal to engage in a political process and his reliance on Russia and Iran.
According to Ford, control of Aleppo is not particularly important to American interests so long as it does not trigger a new surge of refugees.
“The Turks, of course, don’t want that,” he said. “And it could even lead to a refugee flow back into Lebanon, especially if the ceasefire holds. So, it seems like the sooner there is a ceasefire, the better.”
Another key concern for Washington is a resurgent ISIS that might exploit the chaos.
During a NATO meeting Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it remained vital that the “jihadist caliphate by ISIS is not resurrected.”
Votel also expressed concern about this possibility.
“One of the things that we see is that ISIS has retreated into the central part of Syria,” he told VOA. “This is an area under the control of the Syrian government. Many of the forces that he had originally assigned to this area have now been withdrawn. This is allowing ISIS to regroup, to get reorganized and be prepared to rise again.”
This story originated in VOA’s Turkish service.
