Where Turkey stands as opposition insurgents advance in neighboring Syria

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — As forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad make swift and significant advances in Syria, Turkey is watching closely for any spillover. Turkey, which shares a 911-kilometer- (566 mile-) long frontier with Syria, has been a main backer of opposition groups aiming to topple Assad since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. The conflict led to a refugee influx and Turkey now hosts 3 million Syrians.

Turkish officials have strongly rejected claims of any involvement in the offensive that is being led by the jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as well as an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army.

Analysts however, believe that the offensive, which appears to be aligned with Turkey’s long-time goals, could not have gone ahead without Ankara’s consent. It has allowed Turkey to push back against Kurdish forces in Syria allied to its sworn enemy, the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday appeared to blame his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad, for the recent developments.

“We had made a call to Assad. We said, ‘Come, let’s meet, let’s determine the future of Syria together.’ Unfortunately, we could not get a positive response from Assad,” Erdogan said.

“These troublesome marches that continue throughout the region are not what we want.”

Here’s a look at Turkey’s position, how the flareup could serve the country’s objectives and possible risks ahead:

Ties with Syria

Turkey has stated its support for Syria’s territorial integrity: the last thing it wants is a Kurdish-controlled autonomous region on it border.

Ankara has conducted several incursions into Syria since 2016 with the aim of pushing back the Islamic State group or Kurdish militants and creating a buffer zone along its border, and now controls a stretch of territory in northern Syria.

Turkey has called for a reduction of tensions and reconciliation between Syria’s government and the opposition. It has been involved in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, including holding talks with Assad’s main supporters, Russia and Iran.

Recently Ankara has sought a reconciliation with Assad in order to mitigate the threat to Turkey from Kurdish militias and ensure the safe return of refugees. Assad has rebuffed Turkey’s overtures.

Where Turkey stands

Turkish officials have strongly rejected claims of involvement in the anti-government offensive, stating opposition to developments that increase instability in the region.

“All statements that claim Turkey provoked or that Turkey supported this are untrue. They are all lies,” said Omer Celik, spokesman for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party. “What we want in Syria is not in any way an increase in violence or clashes.”

Analysts say, however, that the rebel offensive would have been impossible without a green light from Turkey. Despite designating HTS as a terrorist organization, Turkey is believed to exert significant influence over the group.

Turkish officials say Ankara stalled the offensive for months. Opposition forces finally went ahead with the assault after the Syrian government attacked opposition-held areas, violating agreements between Russia, Iran and Turkey to de-escalate the conflict.

The offensive was initially meant to be limited, the officials said, but expanded after Syrian government forces began retreating from their positions.

Gonul Tol, director of the U.S.-based Middle East Institutes’ Turkish Program, says Ankara does not have full control over HTS, but has provided indirect support, allowing aid trucks to pass to the HTS stronghold of Idlib. The agreement between Turkey, Russia and Iran also helped the group to thrive, Tol said.

Risks ahead

The offensive could pose several risks to Turkey, including stoking tensions with Syria’s backers, Iran and Russia. Turkey, a NATO member, has sought to balance close relations with both Ukraine and Russia in the face of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of its southern neighbor.

Increasing instability in Syria could send a new wave of refugees toward the Turkish border.

Tol, who is the author of a book on Turkey and Syria, said that although Russia is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin would be unwilling to see Assad fall.

“I doubt Russia is going to give up on Assad,” Tol said. “Syria is just too important for Putin.”

Alignment of goals

The insurgents’ offensive has raised hopes that Turkey may achieve its strategic objectives in Syria, including securing its southern borders and facilitating the safe return of Syrian refugees.

Since 2022, Turkey has sought to normalize relations with Syria. However, Assad insists on the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria, while Turkey maintains it cannot withdraw as long as threats from Kurdish militias persist.

Analysts believe the offensive could pressure Assad into reconciliation with Turkey and engaging in negotiations with the Syrian opposition.

Additionally, it may allow Turkey to push the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units, the YPG, away from its borders. Despite the YPG’s alliance with the U.S. against the Islamic State group, Turkey views it as a terrorist organization.

Recently, another opposition force, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, expelled the YPG from Tal Rifaat, north of Aleppo. The leader of Turkey’s nationalist party, an Erdogan ally, has called for targeting the Kurdish-held city of Manbij next.

There are also hopes that opposition control of Aleppo will encourage refugees to return, with Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya noting that about 40% of Syrian refugees in Turkey are from Aleppo.

However, Tol noted that Turkey may not be able to control the HTS as it forges ahead and pursues its own interests. “The question is, will the HTS listen to Erdogan after having gained so much ground?” she said.

Tol added: “HTS are a wild card. Does Turkey really want a jihadist organization to be running a neighboring country?”