FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Cereal production estimated at above-average levels in 2024
- Planting of 2025 winter cereals started in November 2024
- Cereal imports and exports forecast to decrease in 2024/25
- High food inflation persists as currency rate reached record lows in October 2024
- Food insecurity and low livelihoods prevail among vulnerable host communities and refugees in 2024
Cereal production estimated at above-average levels in 2024
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, the 2024 cereal output is estimated at 39 million tonnes, about 6 percent above average, with wheat and barley production at 20.8 and 8.2 million tonnes, respectively.
The above-average output is mainly due to abundant precipitation amounts in the autumn and winter seasons (October-February) in Central and Southern Anatolia, key cereal producing regions. However, high temperatures and dry weather conditions between March and April 2024 adversely affected yields which were, on average, about 7 percent below the record high levels of 2023. Furthermore, farmers had limited access to inputs due to their high costs as reflected in the Agricultural Input Price Index which increased by about 33 percent annually in August 2024. The increase of input prices, particularly of seeds, pesticides and energy was largely driven by the currency devaluation. To limit inflationary pressures on farmers’ production costs, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) increased procurement prices for the 2024 wheat harvest by 6 to 12 percent compared to the previous year, depending on the type and quality of the wheat grains.
Planting of 2025 winter cereals started in November 2024
Planting of the 2025 winter wheat and barley crops started at the beginning of November. The Ministry of Agriculture has implemented a new crop production support programme for 2025-2027 to assist farmers in increasing yields and quality of crops. The support programme includes partial coverage of input costs and incentives for using local seeds.
However, weather forecasts indicate below-average precipitation amounts during the winter season (December-February), specifically in central and southern regions. If this is confirmed, yields of wheat crops are likely to be affected by limited soil moisture and reduced snow cover which will increase the risk of winterkill.
Cereal imports and exports forecast to decrease in 2024/25
Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (June/May) are forecast at around 12 million tonnes, over 20 percent below the average, largely due to high ending stocks from the previous year and the government’s efforts to limit imported cereals, and rely on local production to cover domestic needs. The government introduced a wheat import ban from mid-June to mid-October 2024, which constrained inflows of wheat. After mid-October, the government partially lifted the import ban and allowed purchases through a quota scheme. Importers are required to purchase 85 percent of the wheat needed for their operations from local sources, while the remaining 15 percent from the international markets.
Cereal exports in the 2024/25 marketing year are forecast at 7.3 million tonnes, about 17 percent above the average, although 33 percent below last year’s volumes, considering the record high 2023 domestic production, which led to an oversupply and large carryover stocks. Furthermore, competitive international prices and the new import tariff on flour in Iraq, a key market for the country, are likely to constrain wheat and wheat flour shipments.
High food inflation persists as currency rate reached record lows in October 2024
Annual food inflation rate stood at 45 percent in October 2024, gradually declining from the 75 percent in September 2023. Despite this downward trend, prices remain high due to currency depreciation. The Turkish lira depreciated 18 percent in October 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching a record low of TRY 34.2/USD 1.
Food insecurity and low livelihoods prevail among vulnerable host communities and refugees in 2024
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), in 2024 about 3.2 million registered Syrian refugees reside in the country, along with close to 222 000 people from other countries. Although Syrian refugees possess the status of Syrians under Temporary Protection (SuTP) and have access to basic services and livelihood opportunities, they often face difficulties to enter the formal labour market and tend to accept informal employment opportunities at low wages. This results in reduced purchasing power and increased reliance on humanitarian aid considering the high food prices for the vulnerable groups among the host communities and irregular immigrants.
