The so-called Nostradamus of US elections has refreshed his prediction on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win with Election Day a week away.
Historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly called nine of the 10 presidential elections in the last four decades, in early September said Harris will emerge victorious.
Last week, Lichtman took to YouTube to reiterate his forecast.
‘The keys have not changed,’ he said.
Sorry, this video isn’t available any more.
‘I just want to stress the prediction remains unchanged for Harris.’
Lichtman said he deliberately came out with his pick before the Harris-Trump debate on September 10 which was expected to be ‘pivotal’.
‘I wanted to make clear the message of the keys, it’s governing not campaigning,’ said the American University professor.
‘I’ve been asked continuously, have things changed? The answer is no.’
Lichtman bases his prediction on 13 keys to the White House that are determined not by polls and pundits, but by true-false answers to the performance of the political party in power.
The keys which he devised with a Russian academic in 1981 are: Midterm gains, incumbency, primary contest, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure and foreign policy success.
Lichtman had just three false keys for Harris – midterm gains, incumbency and incumbent charisma. She would need six false keys for Trump to win, according to the model.
The historian reiterated that ‘the biggest myth in American politics is the October surprise’, underscoring that he would not change his prediction.
Lichtman’s unchanging prediction runs counter to the latest forecasts by a top polling guru and the world’s leading economist.
Last month, statistician and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver wrote that ‘my gut says Donald Trump’ and ‘my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats’. He noted, though, that with polling within one or two percentage points, ’50-50 is the only responsible forecast’ and ‘I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut – including mine’.
Meanwhile, Christophe Barraud, who has been called the world’s most accurate economist, previously said the most probable outcome was a Trump victory with Republicans also taking the Senate and House.
Lichtman in a new insight said ‘there is more election anxiety than I’ve ever seen’, even dating back to 1960 when John F Kennedy beat Richard Nixon in one of the closest elections in American history.
‘I’ve never seen this kind of election anxiety because a lot of people feel the future of the country is on the line here, that democracy in America could be a thing of the past,’ Lichtman said.
‘I’ve been doing this for 42 years and every four years I have butterflies in my stomach. This year, I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach… Anxious because I’m so worried about the future.’
Lichtman added that he was among 250,000 people who canceled their subscriptions to The Washington Post after the newspaper, owned by billionaire and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, would not make an endorsement in the race. The Post’s editorial board reportedly drafted an endorsement for Harris before Bezos allegedly quashed it.
Election anxiety across the US has reached fever pitch. Public figures have continued to take sides, with stars including Beyonce and Taylor Swift endorsing Harris, while former wrestler Hulk Hogan, former astronaut Buzz Aldrin and actor Mel Gibson are among those publicly backing Trump.
This article was first published on October 30, 2024.
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