September’s Nations League nil-nil draw between Turkey and Wales highlighted how close a game this return fixture could be. Perhaps Wales’s best result against the Turks came in Azerbeijan in Euro 2020, when Gareth Bale created goals for Aaron Ramsey and Connor Roberts to give the Welsh a 2-0 win.
This will be the eleventh meeting between the two nations over the last 46 years, with Turkey with three wins, Wales with four and the other three fixtures drawn. Since drawing 0-0 with Wales, Turkey have won three Nations League games in a row against Iceland twice, and also Montenegro. Wales too are unbeaten since the two last met with a draw and two wins over Montenegro.
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Result odds: Turkey are favoured to win
Turkey win 7/10 | Wales win 7/2 | Draw 27/10
Turkey tends to be strong at home. The last side to beat them on home soil was Croatia, by 2-0 in March 2023 during the qualifiers for Euro 2024. The last Euros was a tournament that Wales narrowly missed out on, which ultimately meant the end of Rob Page’s tenure as manager. Now, under Craig Bellamy, they are looking to write a new chapter, but they still go into this game as outsiders to win.
|
Turkey vs Wales – Result Odds |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Bet |
Fractional |
Decimal |
American |
|
Turkey Win |
7/10 |
1.70 |
-143 |
|
Draw |
27/10 |
3.70 |
+270 |
|
Wales Win |
7/2 |
4.50 |
+350 |
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Score Predictions: Bookmakers predict a tight Turkey win
Turkey win 1-0 – 5/1 | Draw 1-1 – 11/2 | Wales win 1-0 – 10/1
Turkey have been among the goals in the Nations League, scoring eight goals in three wins since drawing nil-nil with Wales last time out. Yet a narrow 1-0 Turkey win is the bookmaker’s most likely outcome.
Out of the five most likely results, a Wales win only features in one of them, which according to the bookmakers, is the most unlikely at 10/1 with a 1-0 win. The Welsh last won in Turkey in 1981, when former Leeds and Charlton winger Carl Harris scoring the only goal of the game.
|
Turkey vs Wales – Top Five Scorelines with Lowest Odds |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Bet |
Fractional |
Decimal |
American |
|
Turkey win 1-0 |
5/1 |
6.00 |
+500 |
|
Draw 1-1 |
11/2 |
6.50 |
+550 |
|
Turkey win 2-1 |
13/2 |
7.50 |
+650 |
|
Turkey win 2-0 |
7/1 |
8.00 |
+700 |
|
Wales win 1-0 |
10/1 |
11.00 |
+1000 |
The over-under for goals odds are hard to decipher, with a very marginal difference between being over or under 2.5 goals in the match.
|
Turkey vs Wales Goals Over/Under Odds |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Bet |
Fractional |
Decimal |
American |
|
Under 2.5 |
4/5 |
1.80 |
-125 |
|
Over 2.5 |
10/11 |
1.91 |
-110 |
Goalscorer odds: Inter’s Calhanoglu one of several favoured to score
Anytime scorer: Kerem Akturkoglu 17/10 | Hakan Calhanoglu 9/4
With 20 goals in 94 Turkish caps, Inter’s Hakan Calhanoglu is always a likely scorer and is priced at 9/4. This season he has four goals in 12 games for Inter. Yet it is Benfica’s Kerem Akturkoglu who is favourite to score. With 10 goals in 17 games this season, he is priced at 17/10.
|
Turkey Goalscorer Odds |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalscorer |
Anytime |
First |
||||
|
Fractional |
Decimal |
American |
Fractional |
Decimal |
American |
|
|
Kerem Akturkoglu |
17/10 |
2.70 |
+170 |
9/2 |
5.50 |
+450 |
|
Enes Unal |
9/4 |
3.25 |
+225 |
11/2 |
6.50 |
+550 |
|
Hakan Calhanoglu |
9/4 |
3.25 |
+225 |
11/2 |
6.50 |
+550 |
|
Baris Yilmaz |
9/4 |
3.25 |
+225 |
11/2 |
6.50 |
+550 |
|
Semih Kilicsoy |
9/4 |
3.25 |
+225 |
11/2 |
6.50 |
+550 |
None of Wales’s most favoured scorers are as likely to score as the Turkish, according to the bookmakers. Brennan Johnson has been much improved for Spurs this season and is out on his own as the man most likely to net for Wales at 15/4
|
Wales Goalscorer Odds |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalscorer |
Anytime |
First |
||||
|
Fractional |
Decimal |
American |
Fractional |
Decimal |
American |
|
|
Brennan Johnson |
15/4 |
4.75 |
+375 |
17/2 |
9.50 |
+850 |
|
Mark Harris |
4/1 |
5.00 |
+400 |
9/1 |
10.00 |
+900 |
|
Harry Wilson |
24/5 |
5.80 |
+480 |
10/1 |
11.00 |
+1000 |
|
David Brooks |
11/2 |
6.50 |
+550 |
11/1 |
12.00 |
+1100 |
|
Daniel James |
11/1 |
6.50 |
+550 |
11/1 |
12.00 |
+1100 |
Predictions and Best Bets
Hakan Calhanoglu to score in a 2-0 Turkey win
Turkey have plenty of firepower and have attacking players in form for leading European clubs, which is ominous for Wales, who simply do not have not have the same offensive options. With that in mind, the best value bet is 7/1 on a 2-0 Turkey win.
Best bets
- Turkey win 2-0 – 7/1
- Hakan Calhanoglu to score anytime – 9/4
- Turkey to score in both halves – 7/4
All odds via William Hill
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