The Turkish central bank flagged the impact of food prices on inflation in October in a report published late on Tuesday, noting that the composition of inflation stands out as a factor “to be considered.”
“In October, food prices had a significant impact on consumer inflation. Prices of food and nonalcoholic beverages increased by 4.33% in this period, while annual inflation rose by 1.56 points to 45.28%,” the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) said.
Türkiye’s annual inflation eased moderately to nearly 48.6% in October, official data showed on Monday, falling short of market expectations but continuing to slow down after a long tightening drive which lifted the main policy rate by a total of 4,150 basis.
The figure decreased for the fifth straight month from 49.38% in September to the lowest level since July 2023.
The Turkish central bank began to raise interest rates last year to tackle inflation, having hiked its policy rate by 4,150 basis points in a tightening cycle between June 2023 and March this year.
“Annual inflation was up in food and core goods groups but fell across other main groups,” the CBRT said in a summary of the report titled “October Price Developments.”
“In October, the composition of inflation stands out as a factor to be considered,” it added.
“Unprocessed food prices, which are prone to temporary supply conditions and are relatively beyond the control of monetary policy, posted a strong rise in this period driven by fresh fruits and vegetables. As a matter of fact, monthly food inflation excluding fresh fruits and vegetables remained lower at 1.29%,” it said.
Monthly inflation was up 2.88% in October, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) showed, slowing from September’s 2.97%, but still coming in slightly above the estimates before the report.
Following the inflation data, some of the analysts have pushed their expectations for the easing cycle of the central bank to likely start even later than initially predicted, moving estimates to the first quarter of the next year. The prospect of the rate cuts till the end of this year is highly unlikely although not excluded as some of the business associations and trade groups voiced concerns over what they called pressure of higher rates on the companies.
“While the monthly increase in producer prices remained mild, annual producer inflation continued its downward course,” the central bank further said.
“Against this background, in seasonally adjusted terms, indicators of underlying inflation registered a slowdown.”
Lifting the rates from 8.5% to 50% gradually between June 2023 and March this year, the central bank has kept the rates on hold since but continuously reiterated it remained “vigilant” on inflation risks.
All eyes will this Friday turn to CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan, who will present the bank’s final inflation report for this year, likely providing a fresh stance and possibly hinting at the future moves of the monetary authority.
The bank in its third quarter inflation report kept year-end and next year’s inflation projections unchanged compared to the Q2 report, at 38% and 14% respectively.
The government, in the update to its medium-term program early in September, said it expected inflation to fall to 41.5% for this year, 17.5% for 2025 and 9.7% for 2026.
