The next four year of US-Middle East policy hang in the balance as the United States and the rest of the world brace for the results of Tuesday’s election between Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump.
Israel, Palestine and Lebanon
Perhaps the top US-Middle East foreign policy issues heading into the election are Israel’s ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
Rasha Abou Jalal reported from Gaza City that while Palestinians in Gaza are skeptical of both candidates, many seem to favor Harris, given Trump’s previous recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and they hope Harris will bring an end to Israel’s war in Gaza. Yet others believe that Trump’s close relationship with Israel can be leveraged to end the war, thus making him the preferred candidate.
Public opinion in Lebanon is less clear, though a Monday report from Reuters indicated that the Lebanese people doubt the outcome of the election will impact them at all.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear his preference for Trump, believing that he will loosen the US’ reigns on Israel and give Israel the green light to carry out a larger strike on Iran. Netanyahu and Trump have also maintained a close relationship, even while Trump has been out of office. At an Oct. 23 rally, Trump spoke about his recent and seemingly frequent phone calls with the Israeli premier, saying, “Bibi called me yesterday, called me the day before,” using Netanyahu’s nickname.
Israeli society seems to be aligned with Netanyahu: Recent polling of the Israeli public has shown strong support for Donald Trump among both right-wing and centrist Israelis, Mazal Mualem reports. The survey, conducted by Israel’s Mitvim Institute for Regional Foreign Policy, found that 68% of the Israeli public “see Donald Trump as the candidate who will best serve Israel’s interests,” while just 14% chose Harris, and 18% said there was no significant difference between the candidates on the issue of Israel-US relations.
Iran-US relations are another key foreign policy issue that either candidate will have to take on if elected. Both Harris and Trump have expressed hard-liner views on Iran, with Harris calling it the US’ “greatest adversary” in an Oct. 7 CBS interview and Trump encouraging Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities in retaliation for Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack on Israel.
Yet both candidates have also expressed a willingness to engage with Iran diplomatically. Though Trump pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known also as the Iran nuclear deal, he has since said that the United States and Iran must come to another agreement. Harris also signaled openness to engagement with Iran, supporting the Biden administration’s diplomatic efforts.
While the two candidates differ on certain aspects of their Iran policy, their broad stances are not dissimilar — a fact that Iranians have noted. Many Iranians have expressed equal skepticism toward the candidates, believing that neither will bring about change between the two countries.
A Stasis poll on Iranian public opinion on foreign policy taken between Sept. 21 and Oct. 3 found that 61% of Iranians support the idea of engaging with the “West” to establish a nuclear deal, while 20% believe that Iran should not make a deal. Further, an even higher majority, 67%, supported the normalization of relations with the United States, while 25% opposed it.
There does, however, exist a branch of conservatism in Iranian society and politics that rejects any relationship with the United States. For example, ahead of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s participation in the UN General Assembly, Iran’s hard-line Kayhan newspaper published an editorial warning the president against any meetings — which they called “humiliating” — with US officials.
Iran’s leadership has not been explicit about preferring one candidate over another, yet US intelligence has found that Iran is attempting to interfere in the election via online disinformation campaigns. The New York Times, citing US and Iranian officials, reported in early September that “Iran’s efforts appear intended to undermine former President Donald J. Trump’s campaign.”
Oil-rich gulf states, though not explicit about the candidate they favor, may prefer a Trump presidency, which would likely be more willing to overlook spotty human rights records and Gulf involvement in Sudan and Yemen. Trump’s presidency helped to both shield and boost Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s power in the region. But, likely in an effort to play it safe before the election results become clear, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf states have remained outwardly tight-lipped. Getting a sense of the preferences of Gulf state’s populations is even more difficult given the censorship and lack of press freedom.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also anticipating the election result, with many in Turkey claiming he is waiting on the election results to make certain political decisions. Erdogan’s political relationship with Trump during his presidency, despite some turbulence, was strong. Erdogan’s relationship with current President Joe Biden, on the other hand, has been strained in light of Erdogan’s relationship with Russia, along with his criticism of the Biden administration over the Gaza war.
Erdogan’s view of Trump, however, may not entirely align with how the Turkish people feel, especially considering Erdogan’s declining favorability among the public. Interestingly, Turkish newspaper the Daily Sabah wrote in June, citing another Pew study, that 87% of Turks believe Biden is not “doing the right thing regarding world affairs,” but at the same time 86% believed Trump would not do the right thing, either, if elected.
Opinions in North African countries are harder to anticipate, given that Sudan and Libya are both currently embroiled in crises themselves and Tunisia is seeing higher levels of repression under recently reelected President Kais Saied.
Morocco’s Fez News published an analysis Monday that said Morocco could “significantly benefit” from a Trump victory, citing Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara as well as his hard-line policy toward “anti-Western countries that support the Polisario Front,” the militant group seeking independence in the Western Sahara. Algeria, Morocco’s main adversary in the conflict over Western Sahara, has rejected Trump’s stance on the matter.
Egypt, which has managed to maintain a relatively stable relationship with the United States for decades, hopes to remain the beneficiary of US support under either candidate as it attempts to recover from an economic crisis. But it is worth noting that Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and Trump had warm ties during Trump’s administration and that Sisi has, at times, been at odds with US Democrats over their calls for greater human rights protections in Egypt.
