Early results in one of two votes that will help decide Moldova’s future give pro-Europe incumbent President Maia Sandu a lead over pro-Russia Socialist Alexandr Stoianoglo in a battle of 11 candidates likely to lead to a runoff election next month.
Preliminary results after counting 35 percent of the vote on October 20 put Sandu at nearly 35 percent, with Stoianoglo at 29 percent, while Renato Usatii, the populist former mayor of Moldova’s second-largest city of Balti, had 15 percent, according to the Central Election Commission.
If no candidate receives over 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be staged between the two leading vote-getters on November 3.
Observers cautioned that the early results are likely from diaspora sites in Russia and elsewhere in the former Soviet Union, meaning Sandu’s lead could increase as votes from Moldova itself are counted.
Also being voted on is a referendum, proposed by Sandu, asking the 3.3 million Moldovan voters at home and abroad whether they “support the amendment of the constitution with a view to the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union.”
Early results after counting 46 percent of the vote gave the “no” vote the lead with 56 percent, but incoming ballots could also reverse that situation, observers said.
Polls closed at 9 p.m. local time and election officials began announcing preliminary results about an hour later.
Moldova’s crucial dual election will help decide whether the nation’s future will feature closer ties to Europe and the West or turn more toward Russia following a campaign marred by allegations of Kremlin meddling to get its desired result.
Election officials said turnout in the EU referendum passed the required 33 percent level, reaching nearing 50 percent, or more than 1.48 million votes.
In the presidential election, turnout surpassed 51.4 percent, or more than 1.56 million votes, as long lines were reported at some polling stations in Moldova and at sites outside the country, including France, Romania, Russia, and Greece.
Because of the lines, voting time was extended in parts of the diaspora. In Bucharest, polls were to remain open until 11 p.m., officials there said.
A delegation of electoral observers from more than a dozen countries helped to monitor the two polls in Moldova.
Moldovan and foreign warnings of alleged Russian meddling ranging from disinformation to vote-buying, co-opting sympathetic Moldovans, and channeling money to encourage unrest after the election have underscored the value that Chisinau and the international community place on the importance of free and fair — and peaceful — voting.
Front-running incumbent Sandu faced 10 presidential challengers led by Stoianoglo and populist Usatii in the poor former Soviet republic’s third direct presidential election, as it navigates polarization at home and war to its east in Ukraine.
After casting her ballot, Sandu said by voting today Moldovans “can preserve peace and stability” in the tiny country, adding, “Moldovans must determine their own destiny” without “lies and dirty money.”
The votes could provide valuable lessons for Sandu’s allies and the opposition ahead of parliamentary elections next summer that will be a referendum on four years of rule by the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) that she founded eight years ago.
Moldova’s presidency holds limited direct power but Sandu has parlayed her pro-Western message and leverage with the liberal PAS into limited reforms and formal EU candidacy for her fractured former Soviet republic.
One of her most ambitious moves has been eliminating landlocked Moldova’s reliance on Russian natural gas since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but that has contributed to inflation and other economic hardship for many of Moldova’s 2.4 million residents.
Recent polling showed Sandu at 30-35 percent support, well ahead of Stoianoglo, whom she dismissed last year, at 9 percent and ex-Mayor Usatii, who says he wants greater balance between East and West in foreign policy, at 6 percent.
Many voters interviewed by RFE/RL outside polling stations in the capital, Chisinau, appeared to favor pro-Europe policies.
“I voted for a prosperous future for our country, for a better path, for a European path, for the development of our country. We’ve been stagnating for so many years,” one man told RFE/RL.
Another male voter said he was casting his ballot “for the future of our children, for the young people, for a better life, and for a European future.”
A woman told RFE/RL said she voted “for the country’s well-being, so that our children don’t have to wander from one country to another. So that we can live like [we are] in Europe.”
Aside from stark warnings by local officials, including Moldova’s foreign minister, U.S. and other Western officials have pointed fingers at Russia, in July citing “very clear action by the Russians to undermine this upcoming election and referendum.”
Russia, which maintains hundreds of troops at a former Soviet base in Moldova’s heavily Russian-speaking breakaway region of Transdniester, denies intruding on the Moldovan vote.
Since his party was banned by the government and then the Moldovan Constitutional Court last year for allegedly fomenting a coup, convicted oligarch Ilan Shor has been accused of a multimillion-dollar scheme to pay anti-EU voters and influencers and been linked to other schemes from his Russian exile to promote Russia among Moldovans and foment dissatisfaction with their government.
Days before the voting, authorities said they arrested four people and warned that dozens more had been trained in Russia and the Balkans to “destabilize” the country after the vote.
Recent weeks have seen a flurry of conspicuous diplomatic support for the pro-EU cause in Moldova, highlighted by visiting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s announcement of nearly $2 billion of EU investment to help “double the size of your economy in a decade.”
“It is your sovereign choice what to do with your country, and no one can interfere,” von der Leyen said in Chisinau on October 10. “Of course, speaking as president of the European Commission, I believe that Moldova’s place is in our European Union.”
Denis Cenusa, an analyst with the Expert-Grup at the University of Giessen, suggested at a Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) event last week that the referendum was an effort to make up for years spent “oscillating between two vectors,” one toward EU membership and the other envisaging a more balanced international engagement that would almost certainly lead to closer relations with Moscow.
The amendments at issue in the constitutional referendum would include confirmation in the preamble of Moldovans’ “European identity,” the “irreversibility of the European courts” of the country, and integration as a national “strategic objective.”
It would also add a section allowing for accession on the basis of a majority vote in Moldova’s 101-member parliament.
At least 1.1 million voters must participate in the referendum to make it valid, a figure surpassed by early evening.
A “no” vote in the referendum would not preclude future membership, but it would deal a serious blow to Sandu and her pro-EU allies and almost certainly forestall accession efforts for years to come.
