European gas demand continues to decline, driven by renewables deployment and energy efficiency measures.
After falling to a 10-year low in 2023, Europe’s gas consumption shrank by 5.4% year on year in H1 2024 to 232.1 bcm. EU gas consumption dropped by 3.2%.
Norway and the UK posted notable declines in gas consumption in H1 2024, falling by 36% and 13%, respectively.
The EU countries that reduced gas consumption the most were Portugal (-18% year on year), Malta (-15%), Croatia (-14%), Austria (-9%), Belgium and Czechia (each -8%). On the other hand, EU countries that increased gas consumption included Finland (37%), Greece (30%), Lithuania (27%), Estonia (25%) and Sweden (24%).
This trend translates into a reduced need for LNG imports. IEEFA forecasts that European demand for the fuel will drop 11.2% this year to 148 bcm, meaning the continent has likely already passed peak LNG consumption. By 2030, LNG demand is expected to fall to 93 bcm.
Operational LNG import terminals may already be impacted by this reduced consumption. The average utilisation rate of the EU’s terminals fell from 62.8% in H1 2023 to 47.2% in H1 2024.
The average utilisation rate of Greece and Spain’s LNG terminals was particularly low in H1 2024, at 23% and 27%, respectively.
In H1 2024, half of the EU’s LNG terminals had utilisation rates lower than 50%:
• Barcelona, Spain (11%)
• Ostsee/Lubmin (Neptune FSRU), Germany (11%)
• Ostsee/Mukran (Energos Power FSRU/Neptune FSRU), Germany (20%)
• Sagunto, Spain (21%)
• Cartagena, Spain (21%)
• Revithoussa, Greece (23%)
• Le Havre (Cape Ann FSRU), France (24%)
• Huelva, Spain (27%)
• Eemsenergy (Eemshaven FSRU), Netherlands (37%)
• Panigaglia, Italy (40%)
• Klaipėda (Independence FSRU), Lithuania (42%)
• Zeebrugge, Belgium (42%)
• Fos-Tonkin, France (45%)
• Inkoo (Exemplar FSRU), Finland (46%)
Nonetheless, European countries are still planning investments in new LNG import terminals. By 2030, IEEFA forecasts that this could result in more than 300 bcm of unused capacity in Europe.
