Why Turkey sees an opportunity in the Iran-Israel fight

As the spectre of conflict looms between Israel and Lebanon, Turkey is poised to play a precarious role in the unfolding dynamics. Historically, Ankara has sought to limit Iranian influence in the region while maintaining a complex relationship with Hezbollah, Iran’s primary proxy in Lebanon. As tensions escalate, Turkey’s actions will be driven not only by its regional ambitions but also by its long-standing rivalry with Israel.

Turkey’s historical context and current position

Turkey has traditionally engaged with Lebanon to build diplomatic ties but has strategically kept Hezbollah at arm’s length. This calculated distance reflects Ankara’s broader interest in curtailing Tehran’s influence. In the wake of the October 7 terror attacks, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken a distinctly anti-Israeli stance, signaling a willingness to exploit the situation to undermine Israel’s position. Sinan Ciddi, a nonresident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, notes that Erdogan’s public declarations since the attacks underscore Turkey’s intent to rally anti-Israel sentiment within the Islamic world.

On June 25, 2024, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan issued a stern warning to Cyprus regarding its support for Israel, accusing Nicosia of serving as Israel’s operational hub. Fidan claimed Turkey frequently receives intelligence suggesting that some countries use the Greek-Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus as a base for operations in Gaza. This indicates Turkey’s desire to position itself as a protector of regional interests, particularly for Hezbollah and Lebanon, while also seeking to isolate Israel diplomatically.

Turkey’s pragmatic approach to Iran and Hezbollah

Despite its strategic caution, Turkey’s past actions reveal a complex relationship with Hezbollah and Iran. In January 2024, the US Treasury sanctioned several Turkish entities for providing critical financial support to networks used by Iran’s Quds Force and Hezbollah. These sanctions highlight a troubling aspect of Turkey’s foreign policy: its commercial engagement with designated terrorist entities. Notably, in December 2022, Turkish national Sitki Ayan, closely linked to Erdogan, was sanctioned for facilitating the sale of Iranian oil, with proceeds benefiting Iran’s military and terrorist activities.

Turkey’s willingness to overlook these associations signals a pragmatic approach to regional alliances. While Ankara does not align with Iran’s broader regional ambitions, it is willing to collaborate with any entity that can help diminish Israel’s influence. Erdogan’s outreach to Iran, including direct communications with former president Ebrahim Raisi, further emphasises Turkey’s goal of uniting the Islamic world against Israel.

Standing in between?

One significant possibility is Turkey’s contribution of troops to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), positioning them along the Israeli-Lebanese border. This move could serve multiple purposes: deterring Israeli military action against Turkish forces while simultaneously offering protection to Lebanon and Hezbollah. Ciddi suggests that Turkey may use this position to negotiate concessions from Iran, particularly concerning Syria and the return of Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.

However, the question remains: Does Turkey possess the diplomatic credibility to broker such an arrangement? While Turkey’s involvement could increase its influence in Lebanon, it is unclear whether Iran and Hezbollah would be receptive to avoiding conflict in exchange for Turkish support.

Implications of Turkey’s ambitions

Turkey’s manoeuvres amid escalating tensions must be scrutinised carefully. Erdogan’s administration appears less interested in fostering peace and more focused on facilitating Israel’s humiliation on the international stage. Ragip Soylu from Middle East Eye points out that Turkey’s measured response to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah suggests a cautious alignment with Iran, as it seeks to counterbalance Tehran’s influence in the region.

Asli Aydintasbas from the Brookings Institution adds that while Turkey’s support for Hezbollah is tempered by its Sunni identity and past grievances, the weakening of Iran and its proxies could ultimately create opportunities for Turkey to assert greater influence in both Syria and Iraq. Erdogan’s delicate balancing act will thus remain crucial as the conflict unfolds.