After bursting to life in the 3-0 Round of 16 victory against Romania, the Netherlands enter the contest versus Turkey as the largest favorites of the quarterfinals.
As the Dutch did against Romania, let’s get stuck into our Euro 2024 Netherlands vs. Turkey predictions.
Ronald Koeman must be thrilled with how his side acquitted themselves against Romania. Oranje created enough chances to score six, which is how many they put past Turkey in a World Cup qualifier in 2021, the last time these quarterfinal combatants met.
While a lot has happened since that 6-1 Dutch delight, the Netherlands are substantial favorites across our best soccer betting sites to secure a semifinal berth for the first time since 2004.
According to the Euro 2024 odds, Turkey have the longest odds of the remaining teams to win it all.
Netherlands vs. Turkey predictions for Saturday
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Netherlands vs. Turkey score prediction
Netherlands 2 vs. Turkey 0
There promises to be goals in this quarterfinal. Before I get ahead of myself, it is the quarterfinal of a major tournament, so don’t expect the floodgates to open. Now that I’ve covered myself, I can criticize Turkey’s porous defense while complimenting their enterprising and fearless attack.
Turkey have allowed six goals, three of which came against a Portugal side that scored one other from open play (I’m not counting the Czechia’s own goal). Conversely, Vincenzo Montella’s side has shown quality and potency in attack, scoring seven, tied for the third most.
Meanwhile, like a gasket building immense pressure, the Netherlands finally exploded against Romania. I expect Koeman’s team to play on the front foot with the same offensive intent.
While Turkey can score, the Netherlands’ defense was much better against Romania and, for the most part, played wonderfully against France.
Like Dutch fans are known for wearing and bleeding orange, FanDuel is renowned for providing the best value for the correct-score market. The +700 odds will pay a profit of $70 if Holland wins 2-0.
Best odds: +700 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 12.50%
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Netherlands vs. Turkey anytime goal scorer prediction
Cody Gakpo, Netherlands
Cody Gakpo has scored a goal every time the Netherlands have. The only time he was kept off the scoresheet was against France in the 0-0 stalemate. Gakpo scored against Austria, Poland, and Romania and is the Euro 2024 top goal-scorer favorite.
Gakpo has been incredibly opportunistic, scoring three on just 0.8 expected goals. While there is a chance of regression, Gakpo has shown ruthlessness that Henry VIII would be envious of. I expect that to continue against a vulnerable Turkish defense.
bet365 often provides the best prices for the goal-scoring market. None of our best sports betting sites offer better value for Gakpo to score. If it hits, the +175 odds will profit $17.50 on a $10 bet.
Best odds: +175 via bet365 | Implied probability: 36.36%
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Netherlands vs. Turkey best bet
Netherlands win and Over 1.5 goals
There’s no value in backing Holland on the moneyline, so I combined it with Over 1.5 goals. That’s easily achievable from two of the tournament’s most offensive teams. Turkey have the eight-most expected goals (6.24) and have fired 19 shots on target, the sixth-most.
If Holland’s defense offsets Turkey’s impressive offense, which I expect, Koeman’s side will make up for it. The Netherlands have seven goals on the third-most expected goals (8.23), 2.8 of which came against Romania. That number should be higher based on the eye test and how many chances they missed against Romania.
If Holland show half as much going forward as they did against Romania, goals will come.
The -118 odds at BetMGM will pay a profit of $8.47 on a $10 wager.
Best odds: -118 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.05%
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Netherlands vs. Turkey odds & game info
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | -170 | -175 | -172 | -170 | -175 |
| Turkey | +475 | +500 | +450 | +475 | +500 |
| ML tie | +310 | +300 | +310 | +300 | +300 |
- When: Saturday, July 6
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Where: Olympiastadion (Berlin, Germany)
- How to watch: Fox Sports (US), TSN (Canada)
- Favorite: Netherlands (-170 via DraftKings)
Netherlands-Turkey predictions made Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET.
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