Dec 3, 2022; Al Rayyan, Qatar; Netherlands forward Cody Gakpo (8) controls the ball against the United States of America during the second half of a round of sixteen match in the 2022 FIFA World Cup at Khalifa International Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
- The Netherlands face Turkey in the Euro 2024 quarterfinals on Saturday
- Each of the last three games between the teams has gone over 2.5 goals (and averaged 5.0 GPG)
- See the Netherlands vs Turkey predictions, expert picks, and best odds for July 6 at Olympiastadion Berlin
The final match of the Euro 2024 quarterfinals takes place in Berlin on Saturday when the Netherlands (2-1-1) clash with Turkey (3-0-1) at the Olympiastadion (3:00 pm ET).
The winner will face the winner of England vs Switzerland earlier in the day and, despite Turkey’s impressive performance in the tournament to date, the Netherlands vs Turkey odds heavily favor the Dutch progressing.
The longest odds on a Netherlands in regular time are -168, while Turkey is as long as +550 to win in 90 minutes.
Netherlands vs Turkey Predictions & Picks
- Draw (+315) at bet365
- Under 2.5 goals (+104) at FanDuel
Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 32-15-1 (+18.72 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
The Netherlands were hugely impressive in their 3-0 win over Romania in the round of 16, and that was more in line with how they played in their pre-tournament friendlies, when they obliterated Iceland (4-0) and Canada (4-0) while hardly conceding a shot on target.
But their three group-stage games left a lot to be desired. They wound up third in a challenging Group D thanks to a 3-2 loss to Austria, 0-0 draw with France, and come-from-behind 2-1 win over Poland.
In short, the Dutch have been inconsistent. But I do expect their phenomenal back-line of Virgil van Dijk, Stefan de Vrij, Nathan Ake, and Denzel Dumfries to control proceedings. Romania generated just five shot attempts (one on target) and 0.24 goals over 90 minutes on Tuesday.
Turkey is stacked with attacking talent, scoring seven goals in four games so far, and their last two meetings with the Netherlands were both wildly high-scoring affairs (a 6-1 Netherlands win in September 2021 and a 4-2 Turkey win in March 2021, both during World Cup qualifying).
That’s not how Saturday’s game is going to play out, though. In their penultimate pre-tournament friendly, Turkey went to Italy and held Gli Azzurri to a 0-0 draw in which the teams combined for just 1.35 xGF. Turkey also held high-scoring Austria off the board for 66 minutes in their 2-1 round-of-16 victory. While Austria made a concerted push late in the second half and wound up with 21 shot attempts (five on target), Turkey’s defense gave up next to nothing in the first 45 minutes despite leading from the first minute on.
The Dutch aren’t going to concede in the first minute, and I don’t expect this game to resemble the open, free-flowing matchups between these teams from 2021. After the Netherlands took an early lead against Romania in the 20th minute, there wasn’t another goal in the game until the 83rd. If they do take a lead, they know how to protect it without being overly aggressive.
That said, Turkey has a considerably more potent attack than Romania, and if they do fall behind, will put a lot more pressure on Van Dijk and company.
Best Netherlands vs Turkey Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total | To Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | -168 | Over 2.5 (-125) | -360 |
| Turkey | +550 | Under 2.5 (+104) | +300 |
| Draw | +315 | — | — |
The best moneyline odds for Netherlands vs Turkey are found at bet365, which is offering “Enhanced Moneyline” odds on all Euro 2024 and Copa America games. The three-way price has the Netherlands at -168, Turkey at +550 and a full-time draw at +315.
When it comes to the over/under, the best odds on under 2.5 goals are +104 at FanDuel, while DraftKings and Caesars both have the over at -125.
Bettors looking to wager on Turkey to advance can get +300 at bet365 and FanDuel. DraftKings and Caesars have the best price on the Netherlands advancing at -360.
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
